Can the Americans alone determine the future of Syria?

General view of the EU-Russia Summit, 20-21/12/2012, on the left: Vladimir Putin, 2nd from the left. On the right, from right to left: Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the EC, Herman van Rompuy, José Manuel Barroso, Karel De Gucht, Member of the EC in charge of Trade, Günther Oettinger, Member of the EC in charge of Energy, Fernando Valenzuela, Head of the EU Delegation to Russia, and Hugo Sobral, Deputy Head of cabinet of José Manuel Barroso and Diplomatic Adviser. (EC Audiovisual Services).

General view of the EU-Russia Summit, 20-21/12/2012, on the left: Vladimir Putin, 2nd from the left. On the right, from right to left: Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the EC, Herman van Rompuy, José Manuel Barroso, Karel De Gucht, Member of the EC in charge of Trade, Günther Oettinger, Member of the EC in charge of Energy, Fernando Valenzuela, Head of the EU Delegation to Russia, and Hugo Sobral, Deputy Head of cabinet of José Manuel Barroso and Diplomatic Adviser. (EC Audiovisual Services).

The last speech of Bashar al Assad on the first Friday of New Year, which deeply disappointed the West and the Sunni Arabs in the oil rich countries of the Persian Gulf, was about an all-out war. He spoke of “a full scale war” against the enemies of his regime, mainly the Sunni Muslims. But let’s examine how the various camps are formed in this trouble stricken region, a standard in world politics as from the era of our Lord Jesus Christ.

At this point it must be noted that the rule of Assads, Bashar now and his father before him, has been built on the Alawite Moslem minority of their country, a more secular version of Islam. In neighbouring regions of Turkey and along the Aegean Sea coastal areas of this last country, Alawites are estimated at anything between 15 and 20 million people. Ankara, backed Assad at the beginning of this civil war nit has turned now against him, aligning with the West.

The Assad regime of Damascus has strong allies in the Lebanon Alawites, practically also at war with their fellow countrymen Sunni Muslims. Assad has also traditional friendly relations and strong backings from Moscow and Tehran. Russia has dispatched to Syria a long time ago large numbers of civilians estimated at 70,000 people, working in various infrastructure projects, plus an unknown number of military “experts”.

Obviously Israel in against the Assad regime in Syria and backs on the spot together with Turkey the opposition fighters, who now control a good part of the land. In Syria lives also a population of 2 million Kurds always at odds with Ankara, because they back the Turkey’s PKK Kurd rebels not very actively engaged in either part of the ongoing civil war in Syria.

In short what is happening in Syria at this moment is a small sample book of the entire Middle East conflicts, engaging Sunnis against Shia and Alawite Muslims, Kurds of Turkey, Syria and Iraq fighting for their own self-rule, Israel in direct conflict with Iran and the West and Russia in acute confrontation about the future of Syria.

The future of the North Iraq semi-independent Kurdish state is also at stake, with the Americans having there a close ally. If the Syrian civil war finds the Sunnis victorious, Russia will lose its strong hold in the region. This is rather impossible however because the Syrian Alawites led by Assad are a good 15% of the population and will never surrender their future to the Sunni majority. For them it will be war to the last man and Assad now appeared ready to take care of that.

In total the appalling next day after the disintegration of the Gaddafi regime in Libya is a guide of the future developments in Syria and all along the wider region from Teheran to Tell Aviv and from Ankara to the Persian Gulf in the South. A total destruction of whatever social tissues existed in this region.

A good prognosis though should take into account that populations of millions cannot be totally exterminated and will continue to control the ground on which they have been living for centuries. What happens now in Libya is a good example of what may happen in Syria. No faction will be in absolute control and there will be no centrally control state, in the sense we know in the west. Armed militias will continue to exist and rule on the ground, being in continuous skirmishes with each other and the big powers like the US and Russia controlling small enclaves which are vital for their interests.

It remains to be seen if the Americans will forced to recognise that there will be no end to the conflict without Russia accepting it. In short this means that the US and their European allies in Paris and London, would be obliged to come to terms with the prospect of a strong Russian presence in the Middle East.

The last offer by Moscow for a truce in Syria between the Assad regime and the opposition fighters was very clear of what the outcome may be. Russia apparently does not consider a solution without Assad playing a central role in it. And this may mean a continuation of fight.

Advertising

the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Clean Mobility: Commission tables proposal on car emissions testing in real driving conditions

On their epic journeys, migratory birds connect nations and inspire people, UN says on World Day

WHO and UNICEF in campaign to protect 1.6 million in Sudan from cholera

UN chief extends condolences to families of China landslide casualties

Global spotlight on world drug problem ‘is personal’ for many families, says UN chief

EU revengefully shows no mercy to Cameron by demanding a fast and sloppy Brexit now

UN welcomes ‘milestone’ release of 833 Nigerian children from anti-Boko Haram force

CLIMATE CHANGE FOCUS: Cutting emissions, one bog at a time

“C’est la vie”? French recession and unemployment to linger in Eurozone

Terrorists potentially target millions in makeshift biological weapons ‘laboratories’, UN forum hears

Cybersecurity: agreement reached on better protection for citizens and companies

Social Entrepreneurship in the times of the refugee crisis

10 predictions for the global economy in 2019

3 ways to protect your mental health during – and after – COVID-19

Back to the basics for the EU: Investment equals Growth

Rights experts call for greater protection of indigenous people during migration

Libya: Attack on foreign ministry, an attack on all Libyans, stresses UN envoy

Social inclusion: how much should young people hope from the EU? 

10 million Yemenis ‘one step away from famine’, UN food relief agency calls for ‘unhindered access’ to frontline regions

Asia’s plastic problem is choking the world’s oceans. Here’s how to fix it

‘Immense’ needs of migrants making perilous journey between Yemen and Horn of Africa prompts $45 million UN migration agency appeal

In South Sudan, mothers teaching daughters ‘safer’ ways to survive rape

Greece’s last Eurogroup or the beginning of a new solid European Union?

China and UK relations post Brexit as EU addresses Chinese takeovers

Respect people’s peaceful assembly and fair trail rights, UN human rights wing urges Nicaragua

The most unlikely innovators are changing ICT for development – it’s time we took notice

Inaction on obesity stands in the way of sustainable development

There is no greater sorrow on earth than the loss of one’s native land

MEPs call for sanctions against Turkey over military operation in Syria

How civil society must adapt to survive its greatest challenges

Migration crisis: how big a security threat it is?

Commission caps charges on card and Internet payments and enforces competition

Greek citizens to pay the price again but Tsipras risks losing next elections

New skills needed for medical students in Industry 4.0

Vaccine against Ebola: Commission grants first-ever market authorisation

The G7 fails to agree on growth but protects the big banks

Coronavirus has ‘pandemic potential’ – but what is a pandemic?

Nicaragua crisis: One year in, more than 60,000 have fled, seeking refuge

Alarming number of women mistreated during childbirth, new UN health agency figures show

Glaringly false reassurances about the repercussions of the EU-US free trade agreement

State aid: Commission approves Luxembourg guarantee measure to further support economy in coronavirus outbreak

European Border and Coast Guard: 10 000-strong standing corps by 2027

Drastic deterioration in security across Burkina Faso as 70,000 flee their homes in past two months, UN warns

EP Brexit Steering Group calls on the UK to overcome the deadlock

“The winner is who can accelerate the transition to a new digital era”. The Sting reports live from EBS 2015: a Digital Europe 4.0

As many as 330,000 displaced by heavy fighting in south-west Syria – UN agency

Do we judge robots on their colour? This study says we do

Meet Alice, the battery-powered plane that could herald the age of electric air travel

Implementation of EU Facility for Refugees in Turkey: EU mobilises €663 million in humanitarian assistance

US prosecutors now target Volkswagen’s top management, upsetting Germany

EU strengthens cooperation with Ethiopia

The Commission tells Berlin it is legally obliged to help Eurozone out of stagnation

Office workers in these economies clock up the most extra hours

90% of fish stocks are used up – fisheries subsidies must stop

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is changing how we grow, buy and choose what we eat

Saudi woman seeking asylum in Thailand ‘now in a secure place’ says UNHCR

Victim-centred laws ‘paramount’ to combat online sexual abuse against children

How do you get people to trust self-driving vehicles? This company is giving them ‘virtual eyes’

These are the world’s most positive countries

United States: UN chief ‘deeply saddened’ by deadly California wildfires

More Stings?

Advertising

Trackbacks

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s