How El Niño offers a test of whether the world can adapt to a changing climate

This article is published in association with United Nations.

El Niño is strengthening in a world that is already hotter, raising the risk of drought, floods and crop losses across some of the world’s most important food-producing regions. But unlike many disasters, this one can be seen coming. UN experts say the months ahead offer countries a chance not only to protect the next harvest and our food security, but to prepare for a more unpredictable climate in the long run.

A chilly, wet Tuesday morning greeted presidents and prime ministers arriving at United Nations Headquarters in New York on Tuesday, as the 81st General Debate got underway.

The weather did little to slow the pace inside. Leaders moved between the General Assembly Hall, bilateral meetings and a crowded programme of events, with climate change a theme threaded throughout the day’s discussions, from drought, floods, extreme heat, rising seas and growing pressure on food and water.

All are risks that El Niño is threatening to intensify.

Born in the tropical Pacific thousands of kilometres away, El Niño is strengthening again, reshaping rainfall patterns and temperatures in ways that can affect harvests and food supplies across several regions.

“El Niño now is building on a much higher baseline,” Kaveh Zahedi, Assistant Director-General at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and climate lead, told UN News on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly’s annual High-Level Week.

“It’s a hotter world that the El Niño is happening in, which means it’s going to be magnifying some of the impacts,” he added.

For farmers, that can mean the difference between a harvest and a failed season, enough pasture for livestock or none at all, a manageable shock or a food-security crisis.

But unlike some other disasters, El Niño “announces” itself. Scientists can track it as it develops across the Pacific, buying governments precious time to prepare – if they have the means, and the will, to act.

A disaster you can see coming

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the climate pattern is strengthening rapidly and its effects are already being felt in climate-sensitive sectors. 

“We expect this El Niño to be very strong. That’s actually the top classification that we have. We don’t go stronger than that”, a spokesperson said this Tuesday in Geneva.

It is expected to peak towards the end of the year, but WMO cautions that “the peak is a forecast, not a finish line”. The impacts will continue well beyond it.

“We have the forecast. We have the science,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has said, underscoring how much more governments now know about the risks before they materialize.

While WMO tracks the large-scale changes taking place across the Pacific, FAO adds another layer: more than four decades of data on how previous strong El Niño events affected agriculture.

By combining that record with current conditions, seasonal forecasts and information on food insecurity, FAO can narrow the risk considerably. In some cases, its mapping can identify vulnerable areas at a resolution of roughly one square kilometre, helping governments decide where and when to act first.

“When you put these two pieces of information together, you get a fairly good idea of where the big El Niño impacts are going to be and how they’re going to undermine food and food security,” Mr. Zahedi said.

FAO sees a high chance of agricultural drought in Southern Africa and the Sahel, Central America’s Dry Corridor and parts of South and Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, heavier rainfall and flooding may pose a greater threat, while unusually warm waters can disrupt fisheries and coastal livelihoods.

The consequences are not theoretical. During the 2023 to 2024 strong El Niño event, Morocco’s cereal yields fell by 43 per cent amid extreme heat and drought. In Southern Africa, the region endured its worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance and pushing more than eight million into food insecurity, while poor harvests also drove up the prices of some staple foods across the world.

“We have a glimpse of what happened last time when we weren’t prepared,” Zahedi said.

Climate adaptation on a ‘shorter clock’

Preparation can be surprisingly practical: drought-resistant seeds, better water storage, healthier soils, protection for livestock, and warnings that reach farmers early enough to change planting dates or crops.

“There’s plenty we can do,” Mr. Zahedi said. “We have a lead time… [but] we’ve got to act quickly because the window is shrinking,” he said. “We have to get these measures in place by February, March to, in essence, safeguard the next harvest.”

The same investments that help farmers through El Niño are also the ones they need for a hotter and less predictable climate. Better water management, early warnings, resilient crops and livestock, healthier soils and stronger ecosystems all serve both purposes. In FAO’s formulation, preparing for El Niño is climate adaptation on a shorter clock.

Yet there’s less and less money reaching agrifood systems.

A forthcoming FAO analysis finds that climate-related development finance for agrifood systems dropped by 10 per cent in 2024, to $26.9 billion. Crops, livestock, forestry, and fisheries received only about five per cent of total climate-related development finance. In Africa, such financing fell by 20 per cent even as overall climate-related development finance to the continent increased.

“Not enough is going into the productive sectors and building that resilience,” Mr. Zahedi said. “That needs to increase if we want to safeguard food security, especially in an El Niño year.”

Before the next crisis

That argument will follow world leaders into Wednesday’s Climate Summit at UN Headquarters, where adaptation and finance are expected to feature prominently.

El Niño adds urgency to the debate. Its arrival cannot be prevented, but many of its likely impacts can already be mapped, and in some of the places at greatest risk there are still months in which governments can act.

“Investing in adaptation in El Niño is a no-brainer,” Mr. Zahedi said. “Right now, we have a window of opportunity.”

For FAO, that investment is not only about protecting agriculture from climate shocks. It is also about using agriculture itself as part of the solution.

“We’re not just positioning it as saying they are being impacted or they are the victims, but rather demonstrating that they have solutions,” Mr. Zahedi said.

Restoring degraded land, expanding agroforestry and making livestock and aquaculture more sustainable, he added, can strengthen resilience while also supporting food security, biodiversity and efforts to cut emissions.

“There is no better investment in climate, or in food security, probably in biodiversity as well, than agrifood system solutions.”