Undermining the one-China principle will lead to serious tensions in East Asia

The US interference more than often leads to geopolitical tensions and that’s a historical fact. It seems now the world’s greatest power wants to interfere strongly with Taiwan.

Taiwan, a whole different story

Although the US likes to interfere in anything with a pulse, Taiwan is no Ukraine and will never be. To begin with, Ukraine is a sovereign state while Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. More than 180 countries have adhered to the One China Policy UN Resolution 2758 stating simply that there is just one motherland China and not sovereign entities within Chinese territory. Taiwan has been historically part of Chinese territory, culture and language. According to the Resolution 2758, it “decides to restore all its rights to the People’s Republic of China and to recognize the representatives of its Government as the only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations, and to expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it.” And even before the Resolution 2758 of 1971 the Cairo Declaration in 1943 and Postdam Proclamation in 1945 also underscored that Taiwan is a mere part of China. So, it takes no masters in international relations for one to understand that historically Taiwan is part of China and both countries should be seen as one.

This means that the fact the US tends to undermine the One China Policy by propagating Taiwanese independence is simply a war act against Chinese territory. Celebrating thus the outcome of the Taiwanese elections as a manifestation of democracy and independence is misleading as it is not suitable for a Chinese territory but for elections in a sovereign country e.g. France. The US though didn’t respect that, they sent delegation right after the elections’ outcome to celebrate and they officially congratulated the outcome of the elections while they will also partake in the upcoming inauguration.

Indeed, next Monday May 20 Taipei holds the inauguration of Taiwan’s President-elect Lai-Ching te and nobody would pay attention if it hadn’t been for Western countries like the US and Australia to send their delegations. The US seemingly plays it low profile with an unofficial delegation of 2 ex senior officials and 1 scholar while the Aussies just have budget for MPs to travel and that’s what they’ll do. However, last time it was checked US congress is very legit and official. So, the reality is that there will be pretty much official US representation at the inauguration. This will escalate even further US-China tensions as the move shows no respect for the One China Policy.

The US though apart from playing it “unofficial” with the delegation, they have been very official with their 120 million dollar bill to support Taiwan against China’s pressure, expanding its “international space” – aka its role with international organisations, also with the passage of a US war ship from the Taiwan straits days ago, and with the readiness to examine Taiwan’s request for drones to deter Chinese war ships. To be noted that last year Nancy Pelosi made a visit to the island that was uncalled for.

Meanwhile the EU calls for closer cooperation with China, bilateral trade and investments.

China’s XI though on the other hand stated in the New Year’s Eve address that China and Taiwan will “surely be reunified”. In short, China underscores the “One China Policy” of the United National General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971, the historical ties of mainland China with the island and the mere fact that Taiwanese are Chinese people who speak Chinese with an accent. Naturally, the aforementioned puts the new President’s inauguration on the spotlight.

Actually, if this would lead to escalation or not, is a combination of how naive the new Taiwanese administration is and how far the US will push for Taiwan’s independence from China without respecting the One China Policy. If the Taiwanese ever think that they can fight the massive power of mainland China with a bunch of drones, or that the US will support them to fight China in a fully fledged World War III, then they will make a complete and utter mistake.

Overall, the US like to tease and create geopolitical instability with the hope that the rest of the world will lose and they instead will make a buck but at the end of the day they won’t interfere more than sending/selling some weapons to Taiwan, again to make a buck. And they will push the world and of course the gullible EU to sanction China, just like they do the same with the trade war they have just promulgated. But, in the event of a conflict at the Straits the Taiwanese will be on their own, they will suffer horrific casualties and economic catastrophe and and the reunification of China that the US doesn’t want to see will finally realize.

Is this the third act of World War III? It could be if the newly elected Taiwanese adinistration doesn’t pay attention to provocative escalations. In the good scenario, Taiwan will come to terms with its history and the One China Policy, the US will tease just a bit and the things will remain as is (“status quo”) without the Straits being set on fire.

A demand for peaceful coexistence

One thing is for sure though; the world cannot afford after Ukraine and Palestine another war conflict, nor trade wars or chaos. We all live a short life and struggle for a tiny bit of prosperity, if possible at all in the first place, and we cannot afford World War III, as that one will be with nukes, whereas Zuckerberg is already building his doomsday refuge mansion in Hawaii, much beneath the earth’s surface, to drink virtual martinis with people on Meta while we will be hanging out with cockroaches as it’ll be the only living thing that’ll be left after the big boys party hits the button.