The IMF’s latest economic forecast and other economic stories to read

This article is brought to you thanks to the collaboration of The European Sting with the World Economic Forum.

Author: Joe Myers, Writer, Forum Agenda

1. The IMF cuts 2024 growth forecasts for the global economy

The International Monetary Fund has kept its global growth forecast for 2023 unchanged at 3%, but has cut its 2024 forecast to 2.9% from 3.0%. However, the fund did cut growth forecasts for China and the Eurozone. The Eurozone is now forecast to grow 0.7% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024, down from forecasts earlier this year of 0.9% and 1.5%. China’s forecasts were cut to 5.0% and 4.2% respectively, reductions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. The US economy’s growth prospects were raised by 0.3 percentage points for this year and half a percentage point for next year. It makes the US the only major economy to be ahead of pre-pandemic forecasts.

Growth in Asia could be slowed by rising debt levels in ‘seemingly healthy’ economies, the World Bank’s Chief Economist Indermit Gill has warned in an interview with Reuters. He warned of the slow pace of debt restructuring in the world’s poorest countries, but alongside that issued a warning about debt in Asia specifically.

“We have simultaneous problems: too much debt and too little investment,” Gill said. “There’s a lot of government consumption and private consumption being financed through debt. There is not a lot of investment being financed through credit, and that’s not great.”

He didn’t warn of debt distress, but potentially the dragging effect on growth in the region. He didn’t give specific examples, but recent research shows government debt runs at 85% of GDP in an average South Asian country.

Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation hit a historic 38% in September, according to new data from the country’s statistics agency.German industrial output fell in August for the fourth month in a row, reports the federal statistics office. The UK economy grew 0.2% in August compared to July. However, the July drop was recalculated to be higher than first thought, falling by 0.6% rather than the initial 0.5% estimate. Canada’s economy far exceeded expectations by adding more than 63,000 jobs in September, and wages continued to rise.

4. More on finance and the economy on Agenda

Capital flow to aid the climate transition is not sufficient, particularly in emerging economics and developing countries. But, blended finance at a national level offers an opportunity to close the gap, write the authors of this piece from Boston Consulting Group.Could the currency of work change? Individual skills, rather than traditional job credentials, could come to the fore in the skills economy, writes Abakar Saidov, the CEO of Beamery.Greater uptake of paternity leave in Japan could help achieve boost gender parity. However, challenges remain around the perception of the benefit and taking it up.