Brexit: No deal without marginalizing the hard Tory Eurosceptic MPs

Yesterday Wednesday, 27 February 2019, the British Prime Minister Theresa May took questions from MPs on Brexit, public spending and homelessness. (https://www.parliament.uk).

More than once during the difficult past Brexit months the British Premier Theresa May has said that a deferment of the divorce day beyond the 29 March limit, will serve nothing. Actually, this is her only accurate assessment of the Brexit conundrum. Very simply because this crucial question has remained unresolved for 32 months after the June 2016 referendum. Logically, then, three more months until this June won’t change the basic political parameters of the deadlock. And the deadlock centers within her Tory party deep division.

Yet, last week, she offered to the deeply fragmented Parliament the option of a few months delay of the separation date. May was driven to this decision not because she thought it will resolve the Brexit dead-end, but to retain the initiative on Brexit and consequently remain as Prime Minister for two weeks more.

Salvaging the UK or the Party?

By the same token, she seeks to salvage her party from breaking up into hard Brexiteers and sensible politicians. Of the last category, half her government members, plus a good number of her Tory colleague MPs were ready to support an opposition parties’ proposal. All of them constitute a circumstantial parliamentary majority targeting to grab the Brexit initiative from 10 Downing Street in a vote next Wednesday and bestow it to Parliament.

Normally, the government proposes all laws to Parliament and the legislators can support or oppose them. However, a Parliamentary majority can overcome the government and legislate. In normal circumstances, this doesn’t occur because, in principle, the government is supported and controls the majority of the MPs. So, loosing the legislative initiative in a key issue like Brexit, can be interpreted as censure motion for 10 Downing Street, depriving the Prime Minister of her Parliamentary backing.

More futile votes

So, May preferred to avoid this Wednesday’s imminent devastating defeat. She gave more options to the revolting members of her government and the many other Parliamentarians, including the prospect of a few month delay of the Brexit day. May announced she will introduce two new Parliamentary votes on 13 and 14 March, if her new-old Brexit deal is again rejected on 12 March. This last eventuality is the most probable result. So, on 13 March the Parliament will be called to pass or reject a straight no-deal Brexit. If this dreadful prospect is rejected, the next day the Parliament will be given the option to vote on a delay of the Brexit day. The deferment of the Brexit date will just be for a few months, no later than next June.

According to the Parliamentary arithmetic formed during the past weeks, the most probable outcome will be the Brexit delay. This brings the whole issue to square one. The real options will remain exactly the same; a no-deal exit by default, a new referendum or a very soft Brexit – by remaining in the EU Customs Union – as the Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has proposed.

Rejecting everything

Until now, the British Parliament has rejected any Brexit option being tabled, but a concrete solution however soft or hard hasn’t been formulated. This doesn’t seem likely to change after three months, or for as long as the Tory party remains in one piece. The around sixty backbencher, super conservative and extreme right wing Brexiteer Tory MPs constitute the Party’s Achilles’ heel and keep threatening the UK and the EU with a catastrophe.

In short, Europe will most probably remain on tenterhooks for a few more months, waiting for the Conservative party to solve its identity problem. If the Prime Minister continues to soothe those 60 hard Brexiteer ultra conservative Eurosceptic Tory PMs, there won’t be a Brexit solution acceptable to the rest of the legislative. So, the only possibility is for those MPs to be thrown out from the Tory Party and be allowed to form a new extremist political group.

Rees…Moggers

Jacob Rees-Mogg is their rightful leader, but his Palaeolithic political style won’t stand a chance in the greater picture. Rees-Mogg’s rise to prominence reminds of the humorous proverb ‘the higher the money ascends the more her bottom is exposed’. All May has to do to get rid of Rees-Moggers is to cooperate with the Labor Party’s leader Jeremy Corbyn just once.

The gravity of the situation will justify her cooperation with the ‘enemy’ just for once. Salvaging the UK from disaster is not a small thing. There are so many more other issues distinguishing Labor and Tories, that such a cooperative May’s step will be deeply appreciated by the majority of the Brits. Only the few followers of the Rees…Moggers will not understand. Not to forget, the mainland Europeans will demand a practical plan for a Brexit deal, in order to accept the delay the UK is to ask for. Only a common May – Corbyn proposal can guarantee that.

 

the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Action needed to tackle stalled social mobility

How global tech companies can champion ethical AI

Why the world needs systems leadership, not selfish leadership

Europe’s moment: Repair and prepare for the next generation

Statement by Frans Timmermans, Executive Vice-President for the European Green Deal, on the announcement to postpone the COP26

EU-U.S. trade talks – one year on, Commission presents progress report

Wednesday’s Daily Brief: updates from the Near East and Libya, Ebola in DR Congo, World War remembrance

Guterres calls for ‘maximum restraint’ following drone assault on key Saudi oil facility

Blockchain will make sure green pledges aren’t just greenwash: a new initiative by young leaders at the World Economic Forum

Meet Alice, the battery-powered plane that could herald the age of electric air travel

Technology companies have power. They must assume responsibility

3 megatrends for the factories of the future

Meet Cipta: the comic book hero using her powers to tackle bullying in schools

COVID-19 not yet a pandemic, says UN health agency chief

How revealing the cost of coal makes us all better off

The global economy is woefully unprepared for biological threats. This is what we need to do

France and Poland to block David Cameron’s plans on immigration

Is the ECB ready to flood Eurozone with freshly printed money?

How the EU crisis hit countries saved the German and French mega-banks from bankruptcy and still pay the costs

Eurozone’s central bank leadership prepares for shoddier prospects

Sudzha gas metering station at Russian-Ukrainian border (Copyright: Gazprom, 2015 / Gazprom’s website, Media)

Gazprom starts suspending gas contracts with Ukraine as Brussels fears limited transit to Europe

Spain locks down, Denmark shuts borders – today’s COVID-19 updates and expert analysis

The West cannot ignore Russia; dazed Germany sitting on the fence

European Commission and four online marketplaces sign a Product Safety Pledge to remove dangerous products

Deep fakes could threaten democracy. What are they and what can be done?

As urbanisation grows, cities unveil sustainable development solutions on World Day

Five ways to increase trust in e-commerce

UN chief condemns terror attack in Kismayo, Somalia

More women and girls needed in the sciences to solve world’s biggest challenges

The good news on pensions: sustainable equals profitable

EU Visa Policy: Commission welcomes agreement to strengthen EU visa rules

Better sanitation for India is in the pipeline

Migration crisis update: Greece could probably say goodbye to Schengen really soon

10 expert predictions for the next decade in Chinese AI

European Commission statement on the adoption of the new energy lending policy of the European Investment Bank Group

Deutsche Bank again in the middle of the US-EU economic skirmishes

Handwashing is saving lives – but for too many people, it remains a luxury

It’s a lie Eurozone isn’t competitive

State aid: Commission approves €400 million of public support for very high-speed networks in Spain

Can North Korea and the U.S. strike a nuclear deal?

Great Reset: Why LGBT+ inclusion is the secret to cities’ post-pandemic success

DR Congo elections: ‘historic opportunity’ for ‘peaceful transfer of power’ says Security Council

Half of the world’s population lack access to essential health services – are we doing enough?

UN underscores the need to celebrate indigenous peoples, not confine them

Draghi reserved about Eurozone’s growth prospects

Ferry capsizes near Mosul, UN chief offers solidarity, support ‘as needed’

The European brain drain and the deteriorating medical workforce

Foreign Investment Screening: new European framework to enter into force in April 2019

Timor-Leste Foreign Minister highlights value of UN in resolving conflicts

Human Rights Day celebrates ‘tremendous activism’ of the world’s young people

What the Corn Laws tell us about Brexit Britain

Data protection: Commission decides to refer Greece and Spain to the Court for not transposing EU law

Investing in working conditions and quality jobs

The 28 EU leaders unable to start a relevant debate on migration and Brexit

Why sustainable manufacturing makes economic as well as ethical sense

This forgotten element could be the key to our green energy future. Here’s why

From UN Assembly podium, Central African Republic leader appeals for lifting arms embargo

Wages are flatlining around the world – is automation to blame?

Statement by Cecilia Malmström, Member of the EC in charge of Trade, on the successful conclusion of the final discussions on the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) – Brussels, 08 Dec 2017. (Copyright: European Union; Source: EC - Audiovisual Service; Photo: Georges Boulougouris)

The EU and Japan seal free trade pact that will cover 30% of global GDP

Can collective action cure what’s ailing our food systems?

More Stings?

Advertising

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s