Who can unlock the stalled Brexit negotiations? UK Premier sticks to her proposal

Theresa May, UK Prime Minister and Emmanuel Macron, President of France.
Copyright: European Union. Event: European Council – June 2018.

The Brexit cataclysm comes to its apex. On the one side is Prime Minister Theresa May, and on the other around 50 unrepentant Brexiteer Tory MPs. The sides are about to cross swords within and without Parliament.

Reportedly, May could pass her own – not so mild but negotiable in Brussels – version of Brexit in the Commons, the lower and decisive chamber of Parliament. It’s her famous ‘Chequers Brexit proposal’. Supposedly, there are enough votes in the Commons to pass it. This majority includes 11 pro-EU Tory dissident deputies, who defy their Tory party line.

At the same time, however, the hard Brexiteer conservative representatives can try to topple May in the Party. On both occasions, nothing is certain though. The Labor Party, the major opposition in Parliament, is not at all sure if they want what May offers. It’s also uncertain, if a censure motion introduced by the 50 Tories to topple May from Party leadership and consequently from premiership, can produce the sought after result.

Who supports Boris Johnson?

Boris Johnson, the atypical leader of the 50 hard Brexiteers, has to convince the majority of his 314 fellow Tory MPs, to vote May down. This may prove to be very difficult. If they decide to do so, the Tory Parliamentary group would have to face the possibility of accepting Boris as Party leader and maybe also as Prime Minister. In that case, the pro-EU Tory MPs like Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, can vote down Boris’ version of Brexit, which would, very possibly, be a frightful no-deal exodus.

It turns out then that the only certainty in Parliament is a cross party majority of pro-EU deputies, who will block a hard Brexit deal, if the option is put to them. By the same token, it’s not certain if this majority would vote for whatever proposal May is to table.

The same kind of predicament reigns on the other side of the English Channel. The 27 EU leaders would very, very much want to have a Brexit deal this autumn. They are not ready however to abolish, what they consider as red lines. Recently, the French President Emmanuel Macron, while addressing the annual conference of his ambassadors said it very clearly. He explained, he would love to maintain the closet possible relations with Britain after Brexit, but not if that would entail the unraveling of the EU. Understandably, he and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel are pivotal in finalizing any Brexit deal.

EU’s founding principles

For them, it’s about the founding principles of the Union; the security of the club’s Customs Union and Internal Market and the free movement of goods, people and capital. Add to that the backstop avowal of no hard border being built in the island of Ireland, and one comes up with squaring the cycle. Both Britain and the EU have pledged that there won’t be a hard border in Ireland. The Republic of Ireland, the Eire has clarified it will veto any Brexit deal, if it leads to the enactment of a hard border with checks and controls within the island.

Today, there is nothing reminding of any kind of divide between Eire and Northern Ireland. Still, they are both members of the EU. After Brexit, the Republic will of course remain in the EU, as an integral part of the Customs Union and Internal Market. ‘No hard border’ though means Northern Ireland, a part of the UK, would have to remain in the Customs Union too, and so be somehow partitioned from exiting Great Britain.

The security and the reliability of EU’s Customs Union would demand that checks and controls being introduced in the movements of people, goods and capital between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. London considers this option as constitutionally unacceptable, because it amounts to a partition of the Kingdom.

The Irish ‘Gordian Knot’

As things stand, the Irish question remains the ‘Gordian Knot’ of the Brexit deal. On the one side is the integrity of the UK and on the other the security of the Customs Union. These issues are central on the two shores of the Channel and this is going to be confirmed later on today. Since yesterday, there is an informal EU Summit going on in Saltsburg Austria, but it is not expected to produce any concrete results on Brexit.

Last night however, Theresa May had the opportunity at a dinner to present to the 27 EU leaders her ‘Chequers Brexit proposal’. According to information from this graceful Austrian city, the other heads of government or state just said how badly they want a Brexit deal this fall. In any case, this Summit being informal is not to produce any conclusions in writing. So the hard decisions will be left for the subsequent formal EU Summits of October, or November or even December in Brussels. The no-deal Brexit becomes every week more probable.

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the European Sting Milestones

Featured Stings

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Scientists in Sweden are studying the climate-cooling effects of spruce forests

Future Forces Forum: Prague will be hosting the most important project in the field of Defence and Security

Ercom, cutting-edge Telco solutions from Europe

Why medicine is relevant to the battle against climate change

EU Budget 2019 deal: EP boosts support for researchers and the young

This is what you need to know about the Iran nuclear deal

Politics is failing to protect the Amazon. It’s time for finance to step up instead

China is building 8 new airports a year

States with power and influence to end suffering of Yemenis must take action ‘immediately’ – UN rights chief

Assembly of European Regions @ European Business Summit 2014: Made in Europe – Made of Regions

Macron plans for Europe, Brexit and banks but vague on France

“We always honor our words, and in that respect we expect our partners to honor their words as well”, China’s State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlights live from Brussels

Every bite of burger boosts harmful greenhouse gases: UN Environment Agency

At Ministerial session, UN regional office in Beirut to focus on technology for sustainable development

On the euro but out of it?

Women’s rights in Asia – how far have we come?

UN condemns ‘cowardly’ attack on Libya’s national oil corporation headquarters

Unanswered questions for Europe’s youth in President Juncker’s State of Union

Europe’s dirty air kills 400,000 people every year

Pro-EU forces won a 70% triumph in the European elections

European Union: From financial consolidation to deeper political division

Cape Town’s crisis shows us the real cost of water

A record one million Syrians displaced over six months, during six key battles: UN investigators

Extra mild ECB tapering of QE and zero interest rates keep euro low

South Sudan’s foreseen genocide: from “Never Again” to “Again and Again and Again”?

Are the G20 leaders ready to curb corporate tax-avoidance?

Parliament ready to fight for a different EU budget

UN emergency relief fund has ‘never been more critical’: Guterres

COP21 Breaking News_09 December: List of Recent Climate Funding Announcements

UN gender agency hails record-breaking number of women in new US Congress as ‘historic victory’

Employment and Social Developments in Europe: 2018 review confirms positive trends but highlights challenges, in particular linked to automation and digitalisation

Palm Oil: With Malaysia cracking down on production, what’s the alternative?

There is a forgotten solution to climate change that we must invest in – nature

Yemen: Major UN aid boost for ‘up to 14 million’ as country risks becoming a land of ‘living ghosts’

‘More support’ vital to put Afghanistan back on a ‘positive trajectory’ – top UN officials

Bank resolutions and recapitalisations by the ESM may end up politically swayed

UN human rights chief denounces grave ‘assaults’ on fundamental rights of Palestinian people

How can we regulate disruptive technologies?

Eurozone hasn’t escaped the deflation danger

IFMSA and IPSF on the Health of Migrants and Refugees

Does the West play the Syrian game in Egypt?

EU steps up its strategy for connecting Europe and Asia

“A global threat lies ahead worsened after the EU’s green light to the Bayer-Monsanto merger”, a Sting Exclusive by the President of Slow Food

Public health through universal health coverage can help to attain many SDGs

Will ECB win against low inflation by not following Quantitave Easing?

A Sting Exclusive: “Youth voice must be heard in climate change negotiations!”, Bérénice Jond Board Member of European Youth Forum demands from Brussels

Global Citizen-Volunteer Internships

How storytelling can be a force for social change

Here are 3 lessons Europe can learn from China’s flourishing start-ups

COP21 Business update: Companies urge now for carbon pricing as coal is still a big issue

Can technology save life on Earth?

No hard drivers in sight to remodel the stagnating affairs of the EU

EU and India re-open talks over strategic partnership while prepare for a Free Trade Agreement

A Sting Exclusive: “Global Climate: Our Common Responsibility”, S&P MEP Miriam Dalli underlines from Brussels

250 days until the European Parliament elections

EU approves disbursement of €500 million in Macro-Financial Assistance to Ukraine

GREXIT final wrap-up: nobody believed Aesop’s boy who cried wolf so many times

Everyone has ‘a moral imperative’ to uphold the rights of persons with disabilities, says UN chief

Dangerous Trumpism in the Middle East with an anti-European edge

EU budget agreement rejected by the European Parliament

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s