Who can unlock the stalled Brexit negotiations? UK Premier sticks to her proposal

Theresa May, UK Prime Minister and Emmanuel Macron, President of France.
Copyright: European Union. Event: European Council – June 2018.

The Brexit cataclysm comes to its apex. On the one side is Prime Minister Theresa May, and on the other around 50 unrepentant Brexiteer Tory MPs. The sides are about to cross swords within and without Parliament.

Reportedly, May could pass her own – not so mild but negotiable in Brussels – version of Brexit in the Commons, the lower and decisive chamber of Parliament. It’s her famous ‘Chequers Brexit proposal’. Supposedly, there are enough votes in the Commons to pass it. This majority includes 11 pro-EU Tory dissident deputies, who defy their Tory party line.

At the same time, however, the hard Brexiteer conservative representatives can try to topple May in the Party. On both occasions, nothing is certain though. The Labor Party, the major opposition in Parliament, is not at all sure if they want what May offers. It’s also uncertain, if a censure motion introduced by the 50 Tories to topple May from Party leadership and consequently from premiership, can produce the sought after result.

Who supports Boris Johnson?

Boris Johnson, the atypical leader of the 50 hard Brexiteers, has to convince the majority of his 314 fellow Tory MPs, to vote May down. This may prove to be very difficult. If they decide to do so, the Tory Parliamentary group would have to face the possibility of accepting Boris as Party leader and maybe also as Prime Minister. In that case, the pro-EU Tory MPs like Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, can vote down Boris’ version of Brexit, which would, very possibly, be a frightful no-deal exodus.

It turns out then that the only certainty in Parliament is a cross party majority of pro-EU deputies, who will block a hard Brexit deal, if the option is put to them. By the same token, it’s not certain if this majority would vote for whatever proposal May is to table.

The same kind of predicament reigns on the other side of the English Channel. The 27 EU leaders would very, very much want to have a Brexit deal this autumn. They are not ready however to abolish, what they consider as red lines. Recently, the French President Emmanuel Macron, while addressing the annual conference of his ambassadors said it very clearly. He explained, he would love to maintain the closet possible relations with Britain after Brexit, but not if that would entail the unraveling of the EU. Understandably, he and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel are pivotal in finalizing any Brexit deal.

EU’s founding principles

For them, it’s about the founding principles of the Union; the security of the club’s Customs Union and Internal Market and the free movement of goods, people and capital. Add to that the backstop avowal of no hard border being built in the island of Ireland, and one comes up with squaring the cycle. Both Britain and the EU have pledged that there won’t be a hard border in Ireland. The Republic of Ireland, the Eire has clarified it will veto any Brexit deal, if it leads to the enactment of a hard border with checks and controls within the island.

Today, there is nothing reminding of any kind of divide between Eire and Northern Ireland. Still, they are both members of the EU. After Brexit, the Republic will of course remain in the EU, as an integral part of the Customs Union and Internal Market. ‘No hard border’ though means Northern Ireland, a part of the UK, would have to remain in the Customs Union too, and so be somehow partitioned from exiting Great Britain.

The security and the reliability of EU’s Customs Union would demand that checks and controls being introduced in the movements of people, goods and capital between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. London considers this option as constitutionally unacceptable, because it amounts to a partition of the Kingdom.

The Irish ‘Gordian Knot’

As things stand, the Irish question remains the ‘Gordian Knot’ of the Brexit deal. On the one side is the integrity of the UK and on the other the security of the Customs Union. These issues are central on the two shores of the Channel and this is going to be confirmed later on today. Since yesterday, there is an informal EU Summit going on in Saltsburg Austria, but it is not expected to produce any concrete results on Brexit.

Last night however, Theresa May had the opportunity at a dinner to present to the 27 EU leaders her ‘Chequers Brexit proposal’. According to information from this graceful Austrian city, the other heads of government or state just said how badly they want a Brexit deal this fall. In any case, this Summit being informal is not to produce any conclusions in writing. So the hard decisions will be left for the subsequent formal EU Summits of October, or November or even December in Brussels. The no-deal Brexit becomes every week more probable.

the sting Milestones

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

China hails human rights progress amid calls to close detention camps

Closing the gap in accelerating women’s rights: the role of medical students

EU is right place to tackle pandemic, but reform is needed, latest survey finds

Mosquitoes are helping to fight one of the world’s fastest spreading viruses – this is how

Building social good – lessons from an Asian giant

COVID-19 vaccines: MEPs call for more clarity and transparency

How to change the world at Davos

There is no recipe for a healthy mental state

Does the West play the Syrian game in Egypt?

This company is breeding millions of insects in the heart of London

Here’s how to close the $176 billion health financing gap

COVID-19: MEPs free up over €3 billion to support EU healthcare sector

Burundi election countdown amid ‘deteriorating’ human rights situation

Secure 5G networks: Commission endorses EU toolbox and sets out next steps

What lessons to draw from the destruction of Syria

Ozone on track to heal completely in our lifetime, UN environment agency declares on World Day.

Situation in central Mali ‘deteriorating’ as violence, impunity rise, UN rights expert warns

Aung San Suu Kyi defends Myanmar from accusations of genocide, at top UN court

If people aren’t responding to climate warnings, we need to change the message

De-escalation of fighting in Hodeida is key to ‘long-overdue’ restart of Yemen peace talks: UN envoy

Trade protectionism and cartels threaten democracy

Will the outcome of the UK referendum “calm” the financial markets?

What you need to know about the European Green Deal – and what comes next

“Is Europe innovative? Oh, Yes we are very innovative!”, Director General of the European Commission Mr Robert-Jan Smits on another Sting Exclusive

What is true and not true about the new Coronavirus?

EU–US: What is the real exchange in a Free Trade Agreement?

The new EU “fiscal compact” an intimidation for all people

Forget 2009, this is the real credit crisis of our time

CLIMATE CHANGE FOCUS: The fruits of sustainability and decent work

Women in Switzerland have gone on strike – this is why

Monday’s Daily Brief: global homicide figures, neo-Nazi recruitment, Kashmir, and migrants’ plight in USA

Here are 4 ways investors can influence more secure and responsible innovation

An economist explains how to go carbon neutral in our lifetime

These countries are ranked highest – and lowest – for human development

We need to rethink the way we heat ourselves. Here’s why

Human rights breaches in Guinea Conakry and Madagascar

What has changed in the French politico-economic horizon

Countdown To GSMA Mobile World Congress Shanghai 2018 Is On

How innovation from within is transforming International Organizations as well as lives

Human Rights breaches in Russia, Afghanistan and Burkina Faso

Security Council must ‘come together’ to address the plight of children trapped in armed conflict, says UN envoy

International Criminal Court acquits former president Gbagbo of war crimes in Côte d’Ivoire

How Finland is fighting fake news – in the classroom

UN envoy commends successful conclusion of Guinea-Bissau presidential election

How the tech world could make nonprofits a more powerful force

Libya: EU efforts should focus on protecting migrants, MEPs say

High-tech or ‘high-touch’: UK survey gives clues to the jobs of the future

‘This is a time for facts, not fear,’ says WHO chief as COVID-19 virus spreads

Libya: $202 million needed to bring life-saving aid to half a million people hit by humanitarian crisis

FIAT Chrysler: from Geneva Motor show to the World, and back

Parliament adopts InvestEU programme for strategic and innovative investments

INTERVIEW: UN’s top official in North Korea foresees ‘surge’ in humanitarian aid

UK voters sent strong message to May and Corbyn for soft Brexit

Climate changes and the imminent public health crises

EU and China sign landmark agreement protecting European Geographical Indications

The smartest cyber investment is collective action. Here’s why

UN chief underscores value of cooperation with Southeast Asian countries

Resolving Israel-Palestinian conflict, ‘key to sustainable peace’ in the Middle East: Guterres

Young? You should work out the entrepreneurial heart before the mind

Female African coders ‘on the front-line of the battle’ to change gender power relations: UN chief

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s