Who can unlock the stalled Brexit negotiations? UK Premier sticks to her proposal

Theresa May, UK Prime Minister and Emmanuel Macron, President of France.
Copyright: European Union. Event: European Council – June 2018.

The Brexit cataclysm comes to its apex. On the one side is Prime Minister Theresa May, and on the other around 50 unrepentant Brexiteer Tory MPs. The sides are about to cross swords within and without Parliament.

Reportedly, May could pass her own – not so mild but negotiable in Brussels – version of Brexit in the Commons, the lower and decisive chamber of Parliament. It’s her famous ‘Chequers Brexit proposal’. Supposedly, there are enough votes in the Commons to pass it. This majority includes 11 pro-EU Tory dissident deputies, who defy their Tory party line.

At the same time, however, the hard Brexiteer conservative representatives can try to topple May in the Party. On both occasions, nothing is certain though. The Labor Party, the major opposition in Parliament, is not at all sure if they want what May offers. It’s also uncertain, if a censure motion introduced by the 50 Tories to topple May from Party leadership and consequently from premiership, can produce the sought after result.

Who supports Boris Johnson?

Boris Johnson, the atypical leader of the 50 hard Brexiteers, has to convince the majority of his 314 fellow Tory MPs, to vote May down. This may prove to be very difficult. If they decide to do so, the Tory Parliamentary group would have to face the possibility of accepting Boris as Party leader and maybe also as Prime Minister. In that case, the pro-EU Tory MPs like Philip Hammond, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, can vote down Boris’ version of Brexit, which would, very possibly, be a frightful no-deal exodus.

It turns out then that the only certainty in Parliament is a cross party majority of pro-EU deputies, who will block a hard Brexit deal, if the option is put to them. By the same token, it’s not certain if this majority would vote for whatever proposal May is to table.

The same kind of predicament reigns on the other side of the English Channel. The 27 EU leaders would very, very much want to have a Brexit deal this autumn. They are not ready however to abolish, what they consider as red lines. Recently, the French President Emmanuel Macron, while addressing the annual conference of his ambassadors said it very clearly. He explained, he would love to maintain the closet possible relations with Britain after Brexit, but not if that would entail the unraveling of the EU. Understandably, he and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel are pivotal in finalizing any Brexit deal.

EU’s founding principles

For them, it’s about the founding principles of the Union; the security of the club’s Customs Union and Internal Market and the free movement of goods, people and capital. Add to that the backstop avowal of no hard border being built in the island of Ireland, and one comes up with squaring the cycle. Both Britain and the EU have pledged that there won’t be a hard border in Ireland. The Republic of Ireland, the Eire has clarified it will veto any Brexit deal, if it leads to the enactment of a hard border with checks and controls within the island.

Today, there is nothing reminding of any kind of divide between Eire and Northern Ireland. Still, they are both members of the EU. After Brexit, the Republic will of course remain in the EU, as an integral part of the Customs Union and Internal Market. ‘No hard border’ though means Northern Ireland, a part of the UK, would have to remain in the Customs Union too, and so be somehow partitioned from exiting Great Britain.

The security and the reliability of EU’s Customs Union would demand that checks and controls being introduced in the movements of people, goods and capital between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. London considers this option as constitutionally unacceptable, because it amounts to a partition of the Kingdom.

The Irish ‘Gordian Knot’

As things stand, the Irish question remains the ‘Gordian Knot’ of the Brexit deal. On the one side is the integrity of the UK and on the other the security of the Customs Union. These issues are central on the two shores of the Channel and this is going to be confirmed later on today. Since yesterday, there is an informal EU Summit going on in Saltsburg Austria, but it is not expected to produce any concrete results on Brexit.

Last night however, Theresa May had the opportunity at a dinner to present to the 27 EU leaders her ‘Chequers Brexit proposal’. According to information from this graceful Austrian city, the other heads of government or state just said how badly they want a Brexit deal this fall. In any case, this Summit being informal is not to produce any conclusions in writing. So the hard decisions will be left for the subsequent formal EU Summits of October, or November or even December in Brussels. The no-deal Brexit becomes every week more probable.


the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Globalization 4.0 must build a better world for working people

Nigeria floods: Guterres ‘deeply saddened’ by loss of life and rising need

How to make primary healthcare a favourable career choice for medical students: Strategies and reflections

Coronavirus: Commission presents practical guidance to ensure continuous flow of goods across EU via green lanes

This is how India can become the next Silicon Valley

Why poorer people suffer more from climate change

Artificial Intelligence: a danger to mankind, or the key to a better world?

Tackling youth unemployment through the eyes of a European entrepreneur

ECB: Growth measures even before the German elections

Investment and Financing under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): EU and Chinese stakeholders share their views at European Business Summit 2018

New EU short-stay visas: more advantages for legitimate travellers

2018 Golden Pen of Freedom Awarded to Maria Ressa of the Philippines

Charlotte in Ghana

Yemen bus attack just the latest outrage against civilians: UN agencies

Access to health in the developping world

5 lessons for the future of universities

Digital Single Market: Survey shows Europeans are well aware of rules against unjustified geo-blocking

Daughter of 2019 Sakharov Prize winner Ilham Tohti receives prize on his behalf

What Thailand can teach us about mental health

5 unexpected ways bicycles have made the world a better place

Germany takes cover from Trump in Eurozone and decides to pay for it

Business is stepping up its fight against climate change. This is how

On the detention of children in the United States of America

Businesses, governments and consumers to implement a more climate-friendly approach to #BeatPlasticPollution on World Environment Day 2018

EU and Overseas Countries and Territories boost cooperation at annual Forum with €44 million

Mergers: Commission clears Telia’s acquisition of Bonnier Broadcasting, subject to conditions

The developing countries keep the world going

Galileo and EGNOS programmes back in orbit powered with €70 billion

Millions of young people need better job skills. Here’s how businesses can help

Open, inclusive and diverse cities are better for business and economic growth

Exchanges of medical students and the true understanding of global health issues

Sweden is a top performer on well-being. Here’s why

Parliaments can be pillars of democracy and defenders of human rights, says UN chief on International Day

The role of students in a migration crisis in Roraima, Brazil

Coronavirus: Commission Statement on consulting Member States on proposal to further expand State aid Temporary Framework to recapitalisation measures

The key takeaways of G7 Summit in Canada

ECB with an iron hand disciplines the smaller Eurozone member states; latest victim: Greece

Globalization 4.0 must provide for the poorest, or it risks causing chaos for everyone

Coronavirus: UN health agency moves fast to tackle ‘infodemic’; Guterres warns against stigmatization

We’re facing a ‘cold crunch,’ and it’s nothing to do with the polar vortex

Coronavirus: EU global response to fight the pandemic

How each country’s share of global CO2 emissions changes over time

Europe moulds global defense and security chart given US new inward vision

EU mobilises immediate support for its Western Balkan partners to tackle coronavirus

3 of Jack Ma’s best pieces of advice

UN chief hails ‘very important role’ of Human Rights Council, as US withdraws, citing alleged bias

These are the 10 most in-demand skills of 2019, according to LinkedIn

Thai cave boys spared thundershowers, highlighting extreme climate disruption: UN weather agency

Ukraine turns again to the EU for more money

OECD strengthens co-operation with Morocco – Renews Morocco Country Programme Agreement

Tourism offers much to the EU gets a little

As Dubai switches on its first 5G, what is all the fuss about?

Ebola cases rising in DR Congo, but UN health agency cites progress in community trust-building

Your next pair of sneakers could be made from coffee

A pandemic of solidarity? This is how people are supporting one another as coronavirus spreads

6 ways to drive funding to transform the fashion industry

Brazilian health: right or privilege?

It’s time to ditch our obsession with trade deficits. Here’s why

IMF’s Lagarde indirectly cautioned Eurozone on deflation

More Stings?


Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s