The global liberal order is in trouble – can it be salvaged, or will it be replaced?

United Nations Donald Trump 2018

UN Photo/Cia Pak Donald Trump, President of the United States of America, addresses the general debate of the 72nd Session of the General Assembly.

This article is brought to you based on the strategic cooperation of The European Sting with the World Economic Forum.

Author: Robert Muggah, Research Director, Igarapé Institute

The global liberal order is coming unstuck. After a 70-year run, the future of liberal democracy, open markets and common security agreements hang in the balance. There are red flags just about everywhere – from outbreaks of populism in the Americas, Europe and Asia to the spread of protectionism and outright trade wars. The question just about everyone is asking is whether these trends can be reversed? If they cannot, then what kind of order (or disorder) is likely to emerge?

In our new series of articles (co-sponsored by the Lind Initiative), we explore the crisis facing the global liberal order from without and within. We invited some of the world’s foremost social scientists – Francis Fukuyama, Steven Pinker, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Misha Glenny, Edward Luce, Yves Tiberghien, Bruno Giussani and others – to weigh in with their thoughts. The challenge is straightforward: diagnose the threats and consider the alternatives to the global liberal order.

Until quite recently, few Westerners genuinely believed that the global liberal order was in mortal danger. When the Soviet Union crumbled in 1989, Francis Fukuyama triumphantly declared the end of history. While many critics fiercely opposed his thesis, he was on to something. The 1990s and 2000s were the high water mark of a global order that while far from perfect, contributed to preserving stability, extending democratic governance and expanding unprecedented economic growth.

The sheer speed of the liberal order’s meltdown caught everyone by surprise. It is hard to pinpoint the exact moment when the West fumbled the ball. To be sure, the 2016 election of Donald Trump and Brexit were symptoms, not causes. Edward Luce describes the disastrous 2003 war in Iraq as a turning point. The 2008 financial crisis was clearly another. Whatever the starting point, the credibility of the global liberal project is now openly questioned.

While Steven Pinker contends that liberal democracies are resilient, most scholars fear that liberal democracy itself is threatened with extinction. They speak gloomily of how democracies are experiencing an “undertow”, “rollback”, “recession”, and even “depression”. Others worry that democracies are hollowing-out, becoming “partial”, “low intensity”, “empty” and “illiberal”: Elections may take place, but checks on power and civil liberties are increasingly flaunted.

According to Yves Tiberghien, the spectacular rise of China is one reason why the global liberal order is waning. The country’s GDP has grown from $950 billion in 2000 to $22 trillion in 2016. Between 2017-2019, 35% of global growth is coming from China and 18% from the US (9% is from India and 8% from Europe).

China’s footprint is growing around the world. It is leading the largest urbanization and development scheme on the planet – the $1 trillion One Belt One Road initiative that is reaching no fewer than 65 countries. It also recently launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which rivals the World Bank. It is also a global green powerhouse and setting the pace on the digital economy.

According to Robert Kagan, China and Russia, in particular, have the political, economic and military muscle to undermine the liberal project in Europe and Asia. Other spoilers include Iran, which is seeking regional hegemony in the Middle East, and North Korea.

Yet probably the gravest existential threat to the global liberal order comes from within. Western countries have experienced a hollowing out of their middle class since the 1980s: wealth is hyper-concentrated within a narrow elite. A vocal minority of left-behinds resent the ideas, values and identity politics of urbanites and newcomers, especially migrants. Levitzky and Ziblatt argue that democracies are gradually dying. Making matters worse, electorates are increasingly polarized through digitally enabled electioneering.

The withdrawal of the US as a guarantor of the global order could spell the end of the global liberal enterprise. For the first time since 1945, the chief architect and custodian is no longer proactively advocating for democratic values and human-rights norms, open markets or common security arrangements. If the US strays away too long – and if Trump wins a second term in 2020 – it’s hard to see the global liberal order recovering.

Even if the US somehow reverts back to old form, it is highly unlikely that the global liberal order will bounce back to its original form. According to Anne-Marie Slaughter, a new, networked global order is fast emerging. This new order moves well beyond the chessboard of inter-state affairs to one that is much more interconnected and complex. She and others believe the tectonic plates of geopolitics have altered fundamentally, and that a rougher, tougher world is on the horizon.

If current trends are any guide, the new world order will most likely be shaped by regional spheres of influence rather than any one single superpower. It seems that history has returned with a vengeance. Is it too late for the Western allies – including the US, EU countries and others – to rediscover their mojo? If the global liberal order dies, will the new world order be led by emerging powers – China, India, Russia, Indonesia and Turkey chief among them? Will the shift be accompanied by violent conflict, or can the transition managed peaceably? These are just some of the questions we ask in this new series.

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Featured Stings

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

UN chief welcomes ‘first concrete step’ in normalizing Eritrea-Ethiopia relationship

European Business Summit 2014 : The Sting Report, Day II – Business, Politics and EBS 2015

Climate change will never be combatted by EU alone while some G20 countries keep procrastinating

Amid strong outlook for U.S. economy, risks abound

EU to manage external borders against the will of member states; Greece to be the first target

Does research make sense any more? The dire need for new ways to measure success

Syria: WHO appeals for funding to sustain critical health care for millions trapped by conflict

UN rights experts call on Russia to release Ukrainian film-maker whose life is in ‘imminent danger’

Financing the 2030 Agenda: What is it and why is it important?

Historical success for the First ever European Presidential Debate

The mental health of health professionals: is it worth it?

Central Africa: Security Council concerned by ‘grave security situation’, calls for better agency cooperation

EU Commission expects consumer spending to unlock growth

5 ocean success stories to chase away the blues

New York high school students are getting free water bottles to cut plastic waste

Here’s how to find a job you really love

ECB’s new money bonanza handed out to help the real economy or create new bubbles?

Greenpeace’s saints and sinners in the tech world

The West – the EU and the US – is writing off Turkey’s Erdogan

ECB to buy corporate bonds: Will government financing be the next step?

Humanitarian Aid 2016: The needs, the highlights, the crisis and the relief

How ducks are helping Bangladeshi farmers cope with cyclones

COP21 Breaking News_03 December: Unprecedented Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction to Combat Climate Change

Counting unemployment in the EU: The real rate comes to anything between 16.1% and 20.6%

What the buoyant US economy means for the rest of the world

MWC 2016 LIVE: Industry looks to reduce mobile gender gap

MWC 2016 LIVE: T-Mobile US reveals 5G trial plans

The EU Parliament sidesteps the real issues about banks, while the US target the Eurozone lenders

European Junior Enterprises to address the significant skills mismatch in the EU between school and employment

Climate change update: consistent global actions urgently needed as we are running out of time

WHO study reveals ‘game-changer’ drug with potential to save thousands of women’s lives in childbirth

‘Habitual residence’ rules deprive EU workers from social benefits

Sanctions on Russia to be the biggest unity test at this European Council

EU Telecoms deal: Fees on calls across the EU capped and 5G network by 2020

Senior UN adviser sees ‘rare’ victory for humanitarian diplomacy as aid convoy reaches desert camp in Syria

The US + Britain trivialize mainland Europe, NATO and the EU

Global Citizen-Volunteer Internships

India m2m + iot Forum Hosts Successful 4th Editions of India Smart Cities Forum and India Smart Villages Forum

A strong European Union is a united European Union

UN forum spotlights cities, where struggle for sustainability ‘will be won or lost’

Give a chance to the brothers of Ailan: reception of refugees in Greece

168 hours left for MEPs – ECOFIN Council to deliver a Banking Union


Re-thinking citizenship education: bringing young people back to the ballot box

‘Great Pacific Garbage Patch’ clean-up project launches trial run: UN Environment

Will the Greek economy ever come back to growth?

A Sting Exclusive: EU Commissioner Mimica looks at how the private sector can better deliver for international development

Nigeria: UN chief ‘appalled’ by killing of aid worker; calls for release of remaining hostages

Four ways Artificial Intelligence can make healthcare more efficient and affordable

More than just a phone: mobile’s impact on sustainable development

Hungary: people born in the 2020s won’t have legal rights any more to buy tobacco

Energy: new target of 32% from renewables by 2030 agreed by MEPs and ministers

The European Sting writes down the history LIVE from G20 Leaders’ Summit in Turkey

Menu for change: why we have to go towards a Common Food Policy

Does Draghi have another ace up his sleeve given his Quantitative Easing failure?

Brain Drain remains a crucial and unresolved issue

Creating shared value: an opportunity and challenge for entrepreneurship

ECB to people: Not responsible if you lose money on Bitcoin, your governments are

EU Commission indifferent on Court of Auditors’ recommendations

German banks suffer of nausea amidst rough seas

Main results of Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) – 18-19/10/2018

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s