German elections: Is Merkel losing ground or Shultz is winning?

merkel-schulz

Visit of Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the EC, to Germany                                        Jean-Claude Juncker, Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz (from left to right) Date: 12/05/2016. Location: Berlin – European House. © European Union , 2016 / Source: EC – Audiovisual Service / Photo: Adam Berry

Martin Schulz’s candidacy for Chancellor has changed the balance in the German elections as polls show that Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats (CDU) are left in the second place after the Social Democrats (SPD).

The polls which are conducted by the Emnid institute and by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for broadcaster ZDF reveal a clear lead of the SPD party and Martin Schulz as the next Chancellor. These results must be a surprise even for the warmest supporters of SPD party which hasn’t won an election for the last fifteen years.

However, it is still too early to judge the outcome of the German federal elections based on just opinion polls the moment that Martin Schulz’s policy is yet unknown. Besides, opinion polls have been wrong both at the U.S. Presidency and the UK-EU referendum votes.

Opinion polls at a glance

The opinion poll by YouGov published on February 13 showed that 64% of Germans would like a new chancellor. Only 19% supported that it was probably best for Angela Merkel to stay at her position with 8% to say that she should definitely be the German Chancellor.

Another poll held out by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for broadcaster ZDF showed that 49% of the German voters want Schulz to be their next Chancellor while 38% prefer Merkel to stay in office. That is a remarkable turnaround if one thinks that the same poll at the end of January had shown that Merkel had 44% while Schulz only 40%.

The Emnid poll which was conducted on 1.885 voters gave the SPD 33% of the vote while the Christian Democrats and the Christian Social Union would win 32%. According to Reuters, the SPD has gained 12 points in the last four weeks, when Martin Schulz was named as its candidate to run against Merkel in the federal elections.

Shultz gains ground but untill when?

In less than a month, Martin Schulz has managed to increase the popularity of the Social Democrats and put them in lead position against CDU/CSU coalition in the German elections on September 24. One of the reasons for the latter seems to be that the former president of the European Parliament is a new political figure in the German political arena.

It is a fact that the Social Democrats’ candidate will be a strong opponent for Angela Merkel but how long will this popularity last? Is it because Martin Schulz is providing some added value to the German politics and to the SPD or the current Chancellor has lost her popularity during the last years?

It is known that Martin Schulz is not experienced in German politics as has been only a mayor of Würselen, a small German town. Nevertheless Schulz is a European politics expert and has promised to fight right-wing populism and campaign for social justice which has boosted his popularity.

Merkel fights hard for her fourth term

The decision of Mrs Merkel to open the German borders to thousands of refugees during 2015 has decreased her popularity to the CSU party and to the German voters.

However, the German Chancellor continues supporting displaced immigrants and particularly Angela Merkel mentioned at the Munich security conference last weekend that the EU should take refugees from Syria and Iraq as ‘Islam is not the source of terror”.

What is more, Greece is struggling to find common grounds with its EU creditors since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not want to financially participate to the programme initially. Therefore, Angela Merkel is likely to intervene in order to convince the IMF at the separate meetings that are scheduled today with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. The last thing that the Chancellor wants now is a possible Grexit which would be devastating not only for Europe but also for her political career.

Who is going to be next Chancellor?

As in every European country, right-wing parties have increased their popularity in Germany too during the last years. Thus, German people are attempting now to find a political leader who could bring prosperity to the already most prosperous country in Europe.

All in all, Martin Schulz is a person that Germans would believe since he is new and has not been timeworn. But he is not someone chosen because of his skills, but rather voted due to the fact that people think that Merkel is not doing her job very well. Also, it is quite difficult to believe that Schulz’s policy would be a lot different from Merkel´s.

Opinion polls lately around the world have shown that are not creditworthy and should not be taken into such a mindful consideration after all. The recent outcomes of Brexit and Donald Trup corroborate this fact. It is thus the average opinion of the German citizen that Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz will be influencing in the coming months in order for the next Chancellor to be elected.

the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

A Europe that Protects: Commission calls for decisive action on security priorities

How the diaspora is helping Venezuela’s migration crisis

GSMA Mobile 360 Series – Latin America, in association with The European Sting

1 million citizens try to create a new EU institution

Can free trade deliver cheaper renewable energy? Ask Mexico

On the first day of 2019, over 395,000 babies to be born worldwide: UNICEF

Qualcomm to be the next target of EU antitrust regulators? China might be the answer

Scoring for the environment: what Mathieu Flamini’s top-flight football career taught him about leadership

CEOs in these countries are more likely to go with their gut

Pandemic mental health: the urgency of self-care

Financing fossil fuels risks a repeat of the 2008 crash. Here’s why

Changing how we produce and consume: New Circular Economy Action Plan shows the way to a climate-neutral, competitive economy of empowered consumers

Your smartphone may know more about your mental health than you

Future Forces Forum: Prague will be hosting the most important project in the field of Defence and Security

Gig workers among the hardest hit by coronavirus pandemic

EU budget: Reinforcing Europe’s cultural and creative sectors

Stepped-up efforts needed to combat pneumonia; save nearly nine million children’s lives

COVID-19: What to know about the coronavirus pandemic on 6 April

Brexit and migration dominates the debate on October’s EU summit

EU-Turkey relations: Will Turkey manage to revive the EU accession process talks?

European Semester Autumn Package: Creating an economy that works for people and the planet

Burundi: Inclusive dialogue ‘only viable option’ for resolving country’s political crisis says, UN envoy

EU Youth Conference in Amsterdam: enabling young people to engage in a diverse, connected and inclusive Europe

Africa-Europe Alliance: first projects kicked off just three months after launch

Here are 4 of the most politically charged World Cup games ever played

This chart shows the total number of COVID-19 cases and recoveries so far

Supporting the recovery: MEPs adopt budget priorities for 2021

This is how the Western Balkans will become more innovative

EU out to conquer African Union summit

Nearly half a billion people can’t find decent work; unemployment set to rise: new UN labour report

With potential to boost profits by up to 20 per cent, a woman’s place is at work, says UN labour agency

Junior Enterprises as a solution for Youth Entrepreneurship

Spring 2019 Economic Forecast: Growth continues at a more moderate pace

UN chief condemns suspected Boko Haram attacks targeting Eid al-Fitr celebrations in Nigeria

IMF: The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation

Capital Markets Union: Making it easier for insurers to invest in the real economy

Germany loves a strong euro; the new Fiscal Councils can deliver despite the Greek chaos and a wider questioning of austerity

Can Greece’s devastating economy deal with the migration crisis?

Do men and women really have different leadership styles?

We can build a carbon-neutral world by 2050. Here’s how

New identity cards deliver recognition and protection for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh

Indonesian tsunami death toll climbs over 400 as Government-led relief efforts are stepped up

These 11 EU states already meet their 2020 renewable energy targets

International Court of Justice orders Pakistan to review death penalty for Indian accused of spying

Mother of all mergers between Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp and Instagram: EU Data Privacy restrictions against Facebook’s imperialistic plans

Antibiotics are contaminating the world’s rivers

New ECB boss quizzed for the first time by Economic Affairs Committee

MEPs back update of rail passenger rights across EU

Batteries included: how better storage can transform renewable energy

Venezuelan crisis: MEPs reaffirm their support for Juan Guaidó

‘Reasons to hope’ for sustainable peace in Central African Republic – UN Mission chief

Four million Syrian children have only known war since birth: UNICEF

Germany fears that Americans and Russians want to partition Europe again

Radio still a powerful worldwide tool for ‘dialogue, tolerance and peace’: Guterres

More women and girls needed in the sciences to solve world’s biggest challenges

Stronger partnerships with post-conflict countries needed to ensure ‘path towards durable peace’: UN chief

I accidentally went viral on TikTok. I learned we failed our youngest generation.

Code of Practice against disinformation: Commission calls on signatories to intensify their efforts

To retire at 65, American millennials need to save almost half their paycheck

New EU rules cut red tape for citizens living or working in another Member State as of tomorrow

More Stings?

Advertising

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s