Trump’s blasting win causes uncertainty and turbulence to the global financial markets

November 11, 2016 by Chris Anyfantis Leave a Comment

Van Rompuy meets top US CEO’s at NY stock exchange.
Location: New York, United States
Date: 23/09/2011
© European Union
Source: EC – Audiovisual Service

So Donald Trump against all odds won the US elections and will become the 45^th President of the United States of America. The latter had as a result to cause severe and immediate turbulences to the world’s financial markets which experienced serious losses in the first few hours of the elections. However, Trump’s victory speech that came right after calmed the markets which started to return to pre-election levels. His winning speech was totally different compared to his provocative presidential campaign promises and thus provided at least for now a sense of reassurance. Yesterday, Barack Obama met with Donald Trump at the White House and discussed both domestic and foreign affairs issues. During their meeting, the markets climbed even further with the Dow Jones Industrial Average to increase by 1.43%, hitting a record high. Trump’s victory aftermath The scenario under which Donald Trump would win the U.S. elections was among the ones that risk analysts had assessed but it was never expected that the markets would absorb all the turbulences so quickly and bounce back to pre-election levels within hours. Nevertheless, the fact that the stock markets reacted so rapidly and gained back all their losses is not at all reassuring investors who still worry about the future policies of Donald Trump. It is quite certain that the financial markets will face more volatility as political and economic uncertainty will spread above the White House. Stock markets and currencies volatilities The U.S. elections and precisely the win of Donald Trump had as a result to cause global market shocks. The European stock markets fell upon their opening on Wednesday before recovering swiftly at the end of the day. More specifically, FTSE 100, a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange, dropped by 2% last Wednesday but managed to recover. The CAC 40 index, the most widely-used indicator of the Paris market was down by 2.9% on Wednesday opening while Germany’s DAX index fell by 2%. However, all major European indices seem to have absorbed the direct vibrations of Trump’s victory quite fast. As far as the currency markets are concerned, the dollar has hit its highest 4-month record against the Japanese yen while the Mexican peso has been plunged by 13% on Wednesday reaching 20,58 pesos per dollar at yesterday’s session. In general, the dollar has been strengthened against most major currencies such as the sterling and the euro. Obama welcomes Trump Yesterday’s meeting between Barack Obama and Donald Trump that took place at the White House pushed stocks even higher in the prospect of loosening regulation and reducing taxes. The discussions were about domestic and foreign policies and the beginning of the 72-day transition process till Trump’s official inauguration on January 20. Donald Trump’s stance after his victory has been totally different compared to the one before the elections. A much more moderate behaviour was evidently noted during his victory speech and his meeting with Barack Obama due to which relative calmness to the financial markets was caused. Too soon to predict Trump and markets It is indeed too soon to understand what the U.S. President-elect has in mind and how the markets will be reacting to his policies from now on. The financial markets though will be shaking again in the short-term since there is still uncertainty about which exactly will be the U.S. trade, migration and economic policies. The uncertainty will keep on ruling in the minds of the U.S. citizens and global investors as Donald Trump will start unveiling his intentions about his future plans. However, investors should not be influenced by the immediate developments and act according to their long-term benefit. All in all, the financial markets will experience volatilities in the short-term but will tend to return to their normal levels in the long-run. The main take-away from Donald Trump’s win is that apparently the American citizens have expressed, following the British citizens recently, their disappointment against the current “rotten” political system and global world order. America sails now in uncharted waters and so do the global markets.

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