What the US and the world can expect from the 8 November election?

May 29, 2016 - Memorial Day (Gallery Archive, from ‘The Campaign Trail with Donald J. Trump’. Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.).

May 29, 2016 – Memorial Day (Gallery Archive, from ‘The Campaign Trail with Donald J. Trump’. Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.).

From Beijing and Tehran to Brussels and London, and further away to Mexico City and Caracas the night of 8 November will create a landmark in contemporary world history. The results of the US election and the new occupant of the White House in Washington D.C will certainly affect the way the world turns around. The poll differences between the two contestants, the Democrat Hillary Clinton and the Republican Donald Trump are so vast that analysts have given up following them, they just watch the exchange of fire.

The world is bewildered with what is happening in the US. Governments, major political parties and global entities, know that the results of the American Presidential race, like it or not, will have effects on every global issue, economic or political. That’s why directly or indirectly almost all the major political forces and countries have sided with Trump or Clinton, or at least they have made clear which of the two would be better for their own interests.

Who backs whom?

For one thing, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has taciturnly left to be known, that under Hillary he expects that the US will be even more aggressive to his country and to him personally, so he prefers Trump to win. In Beijing, the usually very restricted and cautious leadership of the vast country is seen as favoring Clinton. This is the case because Trump has been hostile to China, accusing her of founding its economic growth on millions of lost US jobs. Only lately he said that China can destroy the US just by devaluing its currency.

The Europeans have more reasons to support Hillary though. For one thing, Trump has accused them that they count on the US military spending for their security. He reiterates that America is spending too much on the NATO alliance, thus undermining his country’s fiscal stability. Understandably, a Trump administration will ask the Europeans to search deep in their pockets for NATO’s needs.

What the Europeans need

This week Brussels found one more reason to prefer Clinton to Trump, because she appears more positive vis-à-vis the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the mammoth free trade agreement that the US and EU have been negotiating for at least three years, without success. Negotiations were supposed to have been completed by the end of 2014, but it’s not clear if an accord can be reached earlier that 2019. In any case, if Trump gets the top US job, TTIP will certainly be shelved for good.

Europe has one more important reason to prefer Clinton. The Democrat candidate is regarded as much better disposed to ease the economic relations of the West with Iran. Europe is too eager to see the US lift the severe trade sanctions on this nation of 78 million people, ready to consume whatever the EU has to offer. What is more important, Iran has the money to pay well for European goodies, thanks to the country’s large oil reserves and the bulky exports. Europe is quite ready to penetrate the Iranian market because of the traditional relations with the country. Germany and France are leaders in this respect.

Even Greece hopes to gain from the lifting of the Western trade sanctions on Iran. Last week, Athens vetoed a US – EU blockade on the largest Iranian lender, the Saderat Bank. For a decade now the bank was not allowed to deal with the western financial structures, because of anti-terror concerns. The truth is that many other EU member states would have wished to have an open road to Tehran through the Saderat Bank. It seems that, in this case, Athens is doing the dirty work for many other capitals. Obviously, the EU wants to make sure before the 8 November that the road to Tehran can be opened widely at any moment, whatever the outcome of the US election might be.

The financial sharks support Clinton

The same is true for the New York financial hub, spearheaded by the Wall Street Stock Exchange. The giant US financial industry wants to keep the bridges open whoever gets the top Washington job. The giant banks though and the bourse itself have long ago shown their preferences for Hillary. New York bankers have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in support of her campaign.

Understandably then, during the few weeks ahead of the 8 November election and more characteristically in the past few days, the stock market goes up and down according to what the pollsters say. The stocks move up when Hillary leads and tumble when Trump heads the race as it is happening this week. It was very interesting to see last week Wall Street suddenly taking the descent, after the FBI announced that more Hillary e-mails on her private database when she headed the State Department will be scrutinised. As if this was not enough, last Tuesday, the FBI released 129 pages of documents about the 2001 investigation against Bill Clinton. In this affair, Bill Clinton, on his last day in the White House, pardoned a hedge fund tycoon, accused of tax evasion.

The FBI turned the tide

The latest revelations by FBI have turned currently the tide against Clinton. This week for the first time Trump was found in polls to lead by 1%. In this way, Trump is back in the race, with full potential still to win. The financial markets have already shown what may happen in such a case. The dollar and the New York stock market will lose ground, at least during the first weeks following a Trump victory. This fall will be followed by all the financial markets of the world. Stocks and bonds alike will shed some of their value, and practically all financial assets will be devalued to some extent, of course at the exception of gold. The precious metals, the standard safe haven of value, will again become investors’ best option.

All in all, after 8 November the world may not look like it is now. Whatever the outcome of the election might be, either with Clinton or Trump, the US will be a different place, probably more unpredictable and dangerous in the interior and also more aggressive in its relations with the rest of the world. This is obvious if the winner is Trump, but a Clinton win will have severe effects as well. Hillary has repeatedly threatened nuclear power Russia with unprecedented force.

In any case, this Presidential campaign has divided the US so deeply, that the two sides will need much time to balance. In the meantime a lot of extraordinary events may take place.



















Featured Stings

Water supply a human right but Greeks to lose their functioning utilities

How many more financial crises in the West can the world stand?

Azerbaijan chooses Greek corridor for its natural gas flow to EU

Why Eurozone’s problems may end in a few months

Volkswagen scandal update: “We want clarity fast, but it is equally important to have the complete picture”, Commission’s spokesperson underscores from Brussels

European Confederation of Junior Enterprises hosts in Geneva the Junior Enterprise World Conference

A day in the life of a refugee: the role of nations and citizens of the world

The 27 EU leaders did nothing to help May unlock the Brexit talks

German elections: Is Merkel losing ground or Shultz is winning?

Copyright: European Union , 2017; Source: EC - Audiovisual Service; Photo: Frank Molter

EU hits deadlock on the future of glyphosate a month before deadline

Jade Spring Meeting 2017 – day 2: Coporate workshops, general assembly and magna moment

COP21 Breaking News: Conference of Youth Focuses on Hard Skills to Drive Greater Climate Action

The three US financial war fleets

Can the EU afford a trade war with China?

Why do medical students need to emigrate to become doctors in 2017?

Trump badly cornered at home by agribusiness and steel consumer lobbies: Trade

Draghi’s top new year resolution: Quantitative Easing

Eurozone: Inflation plunge to 0.4% in July may trigger cataclysmic developments

A rapid deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the war-torn Yemen

From Grexit to Brexit: UK industry now says the in/out referendum is good for your health

On Human Rights Day European Youth Forum calls for end to discrimination of young people

The European Youth Forum needs better signal for its “call” for Quality Internships

Counting unemployment in the EU: The real rate comes to anything between 16.1% and 20.6%

Opening Remarks by H.E. Ambassador Yang Yanyi, Head of the Chinese Mission to the EU at the Chinese Fashion Night

The EU Commission does nothing about the food retailing oligopoly

Eurozone: How safe are our deposits? Which banks will survive?

Eurozone banks to separate risky activities: Can they stay afloat?

The EU Parliament endorses tax on financial transactions

The US + Britain trivialize mainland Europe, NATO and the EU

Lithuania vs Parliament over 2014 EU budget

The US may be “open” to reviving TTIP, while the EU designs the future of trade with China

Schengen is losing ground fast revealing Europe’s clear inability to deal with migration crisis

German stock market is not affected by the Greek debt revolution while Athens is running out of time

EU will not deliver on promises without democratic accountability

China revisited by the former Ambassador of Hungary to China

The West castigates Turkey’s Erdogan for the ruthless political cleansing

Eurozone has practically entered a deflation trap

A Sting Exclusive, the European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger writes for the Sting on “EU Industry: a major energizer”

Greece: The new government of Alexis Tsipras shows its colors

Managers’ pay under fire

Why Eurozone can afford spending for growth

EU Commission says falling labour remuneration leads to deflation and damages growth prospects

Mario Draghi didn’t do it but Kim Jong-un did

E-Government can be a remedy for the crisis

Education expenditure in the EU not hurt much by crisis

The EU Parliament slams Commission on economic governance

EU is now giving Google new monopolies to the detriment of European citizens and Internet companies

EU Commission: Banking and energy conglomerates don’t threaten competition!

How will Brexit affect higher education in the EU?

Eurozone’s bank resolution mechanism takes a blow

UK’s PM Theresa May asks for a two-year Brexit transition plan as negotiations round kicks off

Twenty days that may remold the future of Europe

France and Poland to block David Cameron’s plans on immigration

A new proposal breaks the stalemate over the Banking Union

Can the EU last long if it cuts Cyprus out?

UN Environment Assembly 2017: where the world convenes to #BeatPollution

The UK to split if May’s hard or no-deal Brexit is pursued

Finally an answer to the hottest question of European youth today: How to make sure Juncker’s Investment Plan works for youth

IMF – World Bank meetings: US – Germany clash instituted, anti-globalization prospects visualized

China Unlimited: the dragon’s long and winding road

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s