Jakarta/Indonesia, the sinking city: the apnea of the forgotten

This article was exclusively written for The European Sting by one of our passionate readers, Mr Tommaso Franco, geopolitical analyst specialized in International Relations at Luiss University (MA in European Studies). The opinions expressed within reflect only the writer’s views and not necessarily The European Sting’s position on the issue.

All routes lead to Jakarta: the global economy needs it not to sink. But at what price?
With 42 million inhabitants, the Indonesian capital is the beating heart of a precarious balance. Located in the center of Southeast Asia on the island of Java, the city serves as a sentinel for the Malacca and Sunda Straits − vital arteries for world trade. By controlling 60% of the world’s nickel reserves, Indonesia has projected a facade of geostrategic power onto its capital. Yet, a dramatic paradox is unfolding: the metropolis leading the global energy transition is sinking under the weight of its own social fragility. Northern districts − Muara Baru, Pluit, Cilincing, and Muara Angke − are at risk of permanent flooding.

Titans on a leash. Nickel between the USA and China
Jakarta is the balancing point between Washington and Beijing. The relationship with China is symbiotic: Beijing controls 75% of Indonesian nickel refining and finances infrastructure like the “Whoosh” high-speed railway, but depends on the security of the Straits for its own trade. Simultaneously, Indonesia negotiates “friendly nickel” agreements with the US to bypass the constraints of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Jakarta thus transforms its vulnerability into unique bargaining power, establishing itself as an indispensable neutral hub for both superpowers.

However, behind the macroeconomics lies a tragedy documented by organizations such as Greenpeace Southeast Asia and the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF). The stories that follow are not isolated cases, but the result of a metropolis sinking while the rights of the weakest are trampled. Although pseudonyms have been used to protect those involved, these tales highlight how the climate crisis acts as a catalyst for disparity, converting territorial vulnerability into an irreversible form of social marginalization.

When water doesn’t read etiquette. From the Presidential Palace to the Budi-Rasdani Paradox
In 2013, floods breached the Presidential Palace. The primary cause is subsidence: the sinking of the ground due to excessive groundwater extraction. Jakarta is the fastest-sinking city in the world − dropping by up to 20 centimeters a year. Here, the right to water becomes a cruel paradox. The lack of a public water network forces citizens like Budi to dig illegal wells: a necessary act for his children’s survival, yet one that condemns the city to sink even further. In Muara Baru, Rasdani lives in a “concrete sandwich”: every two years he must raise his floor to hold back the tides, reducing his living space to the point where he must walk hunched over inside his own home.

The hiss of the dam and breathing through a crack. When sleep is a luxury no one can afford
In the Pluit district, survival depends on hearing. Sophia doesn’t sleep: she listens to the hiss of water seeping through cracks in the barrier. In these areas, the constant fear of a dam failure transforms existence into a perpetual vigil − a psychological torture affecting those who lack the means to escape. In Cilincing, Ardi recounts the trauma of waking up with water in his nostrils, pinned against the ceiling by his floating mattress. He survived only by breathing through a gap in the roof. They call it the ‘silent tide’: an invisible siege where any rain can turn a bed into a deadly raft.

The Giant Sea Wall: the flight of Garuda trampling the rights of the Muara Angke fishermen

To halt the disaster, the government designed the Giant Sea Wall, a $40 billion dam shaped like the Garuda − the mythological bird that serves as the symbol of the Indonesian national airline. While the State sees it as national security, for the fishermen of Muara Angke, it is a wall of exclusion. The project devastates the ecosystem and blocks access to the sea, destroying the identity of coastal communities. Forced relocation away from the coast strips them of their only source of income, fueling the perception that the project serves only to protect the luxury shopping malls of the elite.

The “architecture of despair” and prison ships
For those who stay, the only way out is vertical. When the street level is raised to stem the sea, old doors end up below the sidewalk. Residents seal off ground floors − now mud tanks − and cut holes in ceilings to create new entrances. Every step represents a year of struggle against a disappearing city. Meanwhile, the impoverishment of the seas pushes young people toward modern forms of slavery. Like Bambang, 22, who, lured by the promise of a salary to save his family, ended up a prisoner on a deep-sea vessel: his passport seized, working 22-hour shifts and given drugs to numb the tiredness. He returned home with only $500 after a year and a half of hell.

Nusantara. Futuristic smart city or a lifeboat for the elite?
Facing the inevitable, Indonesia is building Nusantara, a $33 billion “forest city” in Borneo. Chosen for its seismic stability, the new capital appears to Jakarta’s residents as a luxury lifeboat reserved for the bureaucracy. The project is controversial: Greenpeace warns it threatens orangutan habitats and accelerates deforestation, merely moving the environmental problem rather than solving it.

One-third of the city submerged by 2050. Will the next “Dystopian Venice” truly be saved?
Downgraded to a financial hub, Jakarta will become the largest climate experiment on the planet − a brutal test of adaptability to prevent a third of its territory from disappearing by 2050. The true challenge will not be engineering, but social: ensuring that the metamorphosis doesn’t fuel climate segregation. While the elite relocate and capital takes refuge behind the concrete wings of the Garuda, Indonesia’s victory will be measured by its ability to not turn the old capital into a “Dystopian Venice”, where safety is a privilege for the few. The fate of those who remain − the Rasdanis, the Budis, the Sophias, the Ardis, the Bambangs − remains suspended in apnea. If the global economy wants to save this sentinel, it must prevent human rights from being submerged first.

SOURCES

Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) 

https://itb.ac.id/news/itb-lecturers-analysis-of-land-subsidence-as-a-factor-of-jakarta-floods/57381

BBC News – Jakarta: The sinking city

https://www.bbc.com/reel/video/p088t8gm/the-world-s-fastest-sinking-city

Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) 

https://ejfoundation.org/reports/slavery-at-sea-the-continued-plight-of-trafficked-migrants-in-thailands-fishing-industry

Greenpeace Southeast Asia

https://www.greenpeace.org/southeastasia/story/44290/an-environmental-crisis-in-borneo/

ISPI – Italian Institute for International Political Studies 

https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/indonesia-tra-usa-e-cina-scommessa-non-allineata-130902