South Sudan on the brink as peace deal falters, UN warns

This article is published in association with United Nations.

South Sudan stands at a dangerous crossroads as rising political tensions threaten to derail a fragile peace deal, amid growing fears of renewed conflict in the world’s youngest nation, already buckling under a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for South Sudan, warned that a political standoff between President Salva Kiir and former First Vice President Riek Machar – the two principal signatories to the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement – has now degenerated into direct military confrontation.

Volatility is mounting amid reports of renewed mobilisation by the White Army militia and South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) in Upper Nile state, the alleged recruitment of children, and the deployment of Ugandan forces at the government’s request.

Misinformation, disinformation and hate speech are fuelling political and ethnic tensions.

“This situation is darkly reminiscent of the conflicts of 2013 and 2016, which cost over 400,000 lives,” Mr. Haysom said, briefing ambassadors in the Security Council.

“The overriding imperative now is to urgently avert a relapse into full-scale conflict, refocus efforts on accelerating the implementation of the Agreement, and advance the transition towards South Sudan’s first democratic elections.”

Spillover of war in Sudan

Mr. Haysom underscored the urgent need for collective effort by national and international stakeholders to secure a cessation of hostilities, preserve the Revitalized Peace Agreement and ensure an end to the continuous cycles of incomplete transitions.

The parties must resolve tensions through dialogue, build trust and confidence, refocus on the peace agreement and consensus-based decision making, and strongly commit not to return to war, he said.

“We need look no further than across the northern border to Sudan for a stark reminder of how quickly a country can descend into catastrophic conflict. This region cannot afford another crisis that could further destabilise an already fragile landscape,” he stressed.

UN pushes for dialogue

Mr. Haysom, who also heads the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), highlighted its diplomatic efforts alongside the African Union, the regional bloc IGAD, Pope Francis and others to urge restraint and restore dialogue.

He urged the Security Council to support steps to ease tensions, especially in the Nasir region of Upper Nile state; respect for the ceasefire; the release of detained officials; and encourage South Sudan’s leaders to put the interests of the people first.

UNMISS also remains engaged in supporting civic and political space, and rule of law, while also focusing on protection of civilians, facilitating humanitarian assistance and monitoring human rights. However, it faces limitations – especially in the face of a broader conflict – such as access denials and operating constraints.

“UNMISS is a peacekeeping mission – not an army – and cannot be everywhere, all at once,” Mr. Haysom said.

Humanitarian fallout worsening

The political and security situation is unfolding against a backdrop of what the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) called a “humanitarian nightmare in the making”.

Also briefing ambassadors, Edem Wosornu, OCHA Director of Operations, warned that conditions have dramatically deteriorated over the past eight months.

Across South Sudan, over 9.3 million people – three-quarters of the population – require humanitarian assistance, about half of them are children.

Since February, insecurity in Upper Nile has displaced 130,000 people, including thousands into Ethiopia as refugees. Hospitals have also been forced to shut down due to attacks and destruction, while nearly 7.7 million people are facing acute food insecurity.

The crisis is feared to worsen as the rainy season begins. Last year, severe flooding affected about 1.4 million people, displaced communities and disrupted food production, fuelling localised violence.

Break the cycle of violence

Despite ongoing relief efforts, both UN officials underscored that humanitarian aid cannot substitute for political will.

What is needed, they stressed, is urgent, sustained, and coordinated action – from national leaders, regional guarantors and the international community – to prevent the situation from spiralling.

“Another war is a risk South Sudan simply cannot afford, nor can the wider region,” Mr. Haysom said.

“The Revitalized Peace Agreement remains the only viable framework to break this cycle of violence in South Sudan.”