The relationship between Dengue and the rainfall in Boa Vista, Brazil

(Unsplash, 2019)

This article was exclusively co-authored for The European Sting by Ms. Ms. Luana de Miranda a graduate in medicine course in Federal University of Roraima since 2016 & Mr. Adriano Augusto de Miranda, a graduate in Civil Engineering from the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR) in 1993 and master degree in Water and Environmental Engineering in the same university (2007). They are affiliated to the International Federation of Medical Students Associations (IFMSA), cordial partner of The Sting. The opinions expressed in this piece belong strictly to the writers and do not necessarily reflect IFMSA’s view on the topic, nor The European Sting’s one.

Dengue is a disease caused by an RNA virus which is transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. This disease is endemic in more than 125 countries, infects up to 50 million people a year, has a peak in times of rain, a necessary feature for the continuity of the disease cycle.

Goals

Overall objective is to identify the relationship between precipitation level and dengue. The specifics are: quantify rainfall levels as health disease factor; to analyze the incidence of dengue in the city of Boa Vista in the period of 10 years

Methodology

Data for the years 2001 to 2012 were collected from the Aggravation and Notification Information System and from the National Water Agency (ANA).

Thus, mean values ​​and mean deviation of dengue symptoms and monthly rainfall were determined in order to eliminate extreme values. Thus, an exponential relationship was observed between the accumulated values ​​of suspected dengue fever and monthly precipitation in the historical average intervals during the study period.

Results

First, a graphical distribution was performed that showed the logarithmic relationship between the cumulative total dengue symptoms and the amount of rainfall of the previous month. In the new analysis, values ​​outside the historical average limits of the interval were excluded. Due to this, there was an exponential relationship between the accumulated values ​​of suspected dengue fever and monthly precipitation at the historical average intervals in the study period.

Conclusions / Considerations

The analysis of the mean sum of dengue data relating to the sum of rainfall, in the interval and mean deviation, attends to an exponential distribution. It is thus concluded that a large amount of rainfall in each month could result in an outbreak of dengue in a subsequent month. In this way, actions should be foreseen in order to better act in the combat and prevention of dengue.

Financing source:

Own Financing

About the authors

Ms. Luana de Miranda has studied medicine course in Federal University of Roraima since 2016. In the same year, she worked in IFMSA Brazil as LEO in her university. In 2017, she has performed monitoring in the area of collective health and has became LEO-D in her committee. In 2018, she has participated in the NSSB of IFMSA Brazil. Nowadays, she is acting mainly in the following subjects: preventive medicine, pediatrics, medical genetics and medical skills.

Mr. Adriano Augusto de Miranda is graduated in Civil Engineering from the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR) in 1993 and master degree in Water and Environmental Engineering in the same university (2007); MBA in Environmental Management from the UFPR (2011) and Specialization in Rationalization of Civil Construction by the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (1995). Registered in the postgraduate course – PhD, in Production Engineering and Systems at the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (PUCPR-2017). She is a professor of Water Resources and Hydraulic Premises at PUCPR, working on the following topics: Sustainable Construction; Isolated Communities; Water Resources Management; and Environmental Management.