UK Labour Party leader Corbyn readies to change Brexit political backdrop

UK Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn. UK Labour Party photo

Tomorrow, Tuesday, the British Parliament, the Commons, is to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal, for a kind of soft Brexit withdrawal agreement. As everybody agrees, it’s most likely this PM’s plan will be rejected by the majority of the parliamentarians, as they have also voted down her other proposals during the past critical weeks. The deputies who want to avoid a no-deal Brexit have formed an informal parliamentary majority, comprising almost all the Labour Party MPs plus the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats plus at least 10 dissident Conservative representatives.

This last group is formed by the Tory MPs who strongly disagree with the Brexiteer majority of their own party group, in favor of a no-deal Brexit. In reality, the Tory MP’s who long for a Brexit at all costs are no more than one hundred and twenty. So, in a House of 650 they constitute a tiny minority. Yet, by opposing the PM’s proposal for a soft Brexit, they have created havoc in the governing party and through it in the Parliament and the country.

Tory paralysis

Last month, this group of Tory MPs went as far as to table a party motion to oust May from party Presidency and the Premiership. They lost and May remained in both leading posts. However, after that, she became estranged to around half of her party’s MPs. In this way, the governing Tory party has become paralyzed and has proved incapable of leading the country to any Brexit deal. As things stand now, this Brexiteer Tory group is happily seeing the government and the country sleepwalking to a no-deal Brexit.

In case the major opposition Labour Party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn do not intervene actively, this is exactly what is going to happen after May loses tomorrow’s vote. To be reminded, this proposal has been endorsed by the other 27 EU leaders. By the same token, on mainland Europe, there is no time or willingness to negotiate a new withdrawal agreement with the UK. The clock is ticking and 29 March remains the default Brexit day. According to both the EU Treaties and the UK law, on midnight of this day Britain will cease being a member of the European Union, irrespective of the existence of a Brexit deal.

No interim period?

On top of that, in case of a no-deal Brexit after May’s withdrawal proposal falls, there won’t be an interim period either. Such a transitional arrangement is provided only by her proposal. It foresees that Britain and the EU will continue as today until the end of 2021. During that period, the two sides are supposed to negotiate and agree about their future economic and political relations. Unfortunately, a no-deal Brexit will erase this adjustment interval and deprive the British and the EU economies of a badly needed adaptation phase.

As things stand now, tomorrow’s negative vote outcome is taken as a fact by the majority of the members of the Parliament. In view of that, those who want to avoid a no-deal Brexit have already started preparing for what comes next. As noted above, the no-deal Brexit deniers comprise almost the all the opposition parties including the major opposition Labour Party plus a dozen of governing Tory deputies. So, they undoubtedly command a Parliamentary majority. Still, they do not want to be seen as violating the 52% Brexit result of the 23 June 2016 referendum.

MPs want a Brexit deal

As a result of this referendum, the UK has passed a law foreseeing the 29 March 2019 as the default Brexit day. This date can be revoked or extended by an amendment in the Commons. But, as noted above, the majority of the MPs rejecting the no-deal Brexit don’t want to sidestep the 2016 referendum result. Unfortunately, again, there is chaos in these quarters too. Some of them want a new referendum. Some others prefer to trigger an early legislative election, by challenging May’s backing in the Commons.

The major opposition Labour Party with 257 deputies and the Scottish National Party with 35 seats constitute the bulk of the Parliamentary majority rejecting the no-deal Brexit. They have already produced legislation with 303 in favor and 296 against, obliging the government to bring a new withdrawal/Brexit proposal within three days after May’s offer in voted down. Some days ago, the same deputies voted an amendment asking the government clear with Parliament all expenses meant to alleviate the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.

May’s black Tuesday

So, if, as expected, the PM tables her proposal tomorrow Tuesday and loses the vote, she will be obliged to produce a new Brexit bid on Saturday. Obviously, this is impossible and everybody knows that. The same is true for the Labour Party deputy who tabled and won the ‘three days’ amendment, compelling the government to bring about a new Brexit deal in 72 hours.

Reportedly, in the coming weeks, the deputies who want to evade a no-deal Brexit are planning to table and pass a number of amendments blocking this prospect. Obviously, they aim at actively blocking the government from sleepwalking to a no-deal divorce.

Yet, nobody dares to table and support groundbreaking legislation, directly sidestepping the 23 June 2016 referendum results. The 29 March exit deadline doesn’t change in this way though, more so because the Labour Party doesn’t want to be seen as ignoring the referendum. Then what?

Default divorce date

With a full revocation of the Brexit date of 29 March out of question, its extension is then the only feasible target which the no-deal deniers can aim at. The Labour Party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn are at the heart of this affair. According to an EU Court decision, the revocation can be effectuated unilaterally by Britain. Nevertheless, the extension of the Brexit date needs the consent of the other 27 EU countries.

Politically and pragmatically this consent can be secured only in relation of a special occurrence. Understandably, it may be the fixing of a date for a second referendum or of an early legislative election or, at the limit, both. Brussels will never accept an extension for more …talks.

Early election, new referendum or both?

Then, the Labour Party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn have to be instrumental is this affair. Actually, he is presently hard pressed by many people, even from the Conservative party, to make the soonest possible a decision towards this direction. The governing Tory party is totally incapable of anything.

So, Corbyn has to decisively act now towards leading the country to an early general election or to a second referendum or both. He said he is to table a no confidence motion in Parliament against the government, after May loses the Tuesday Brexit vote. This may trigger a general election. More Parliamentary squabbling with May will impair his chances of leading Britain out of this chaos. He is the best placed if not the only British political leader who can take that risk.

 

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the European Sting Milestones

Featured Stings

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Guterres underlines climate action urgency, as UN weather agency confirms record global warming

World Health Organisation and young doctors: is there any place for improvement?

World cannot be transformed without ‘ingenuity of the countries of the South’: UN Chief

Smart city experts should be looking to emerging markets. Here’s why

The Indian case: health policies need to keep pace with public health literacy

Austerity lovers to put a break on Renzi’s growth vision for Europe? the Sting reports live from World Economic Forum 2015 in Davos

The three biggest challenges for India’s future

GSMA announces first speakers for Mobile 360 Series-Middle East and North Africa

‘The best-selling brand today is fear’: UN chief highlights urgent need to address global ‘deficit of trust’

The European Parliament x-rays the troika’s doings

Brexit: Ensuring a smooth transition for car producers and safety on the roads

Here’s how we get businesses to harmonize on climate change

The ‘yellow vests’ undermined Macron in France and the EU

Million across Yemen ‘just a step away from famine’, with food available but inaccessible

The dangers of data: why the numbers never tell the full story

Privacy is a human right, we need a GDPR for the world: Microsoft CEO

Businesses are lacking moral leadership, according to employees

Lithuania needs to get rid of the victim mentality

Portugal can use its economic recovery to build up resilience

Medical research: between progress and speculation

UN, Egypt help avert another Israel-Palestine war in Gaza that was ‘minutes away’, Security Council hears

UN chief hopes for new agreement after Israel concludes international observation mission

FROM THE FIELD: Finding refuge in the ‘beautiful game’

Better protection against non-cash payment fraud

Trump’s self-centered politics unravels

ECB is about to lend trillions to banks

A Sting Exclusive: “Global Climate: Our Common Responsibility”, S&P MEP Miriam Dalli underlines from Brussels

The new Kiev rulers ask $35 billion from the West

Commuters in these cities spend more than 8 days a year stuck in traffic

The EU seals CETA but plans to re-baptise TTIP after missing the 2016 deadline

How to stay in shape and step up support for refugees

‘True’ peace, requires standing up for human rights, says UN chief Guterres

A brief history of cryptography and why it matters

Who should be responsible for protecting our personal data?

Commission: New proposal for centrally managed bank resolution

This forgotten element could be the key to our green energy future. Here’s why

Minority governments ‘à la mode’ in Europe but can they last long?

A silent killer: the impact of a changing climate on health

How the gender commuting gap could be harming women’s careers

EU cross-border payments outside Eurozone: MEPs scrap excessive fees

High internet taxes are restricting access and slowing economic growth

Everyone has ‘a moral imperative’ to uphold the rights of persons with disabilities, says UN chief

Why a cash-free future might not be as close as you think

A Sting Exclusive: “The Chinese economy is steady and moving in the right direction”, Ambassador Yang of the Chinese Mission to EU underscores from Brussels

The International Federation of Medical Students’ Associations (IFMSA) on the arrest of Turkish Medical Association leaders

COP24: green, gender focus, as UN’s crucial climate change conference gets underway

EU budget deal struck with Parliament negotiators

Big impact vs big exit: the social side of the start-up game presented at the WSA Global Congress in Vienna

The horrific trend of the anti-vaccine movement in Turkey

Stateless Rohingya refugee children living in ‘untenable situation’, UNICEF chief

ECB describes in detail how it exploits the poor

New UN rights report paints bleak picture in eastern DR Congo

How energy infrastructure is shaping geopolitics in East Asia

This is how we make basic income a reality

Greece and Ukraine main items on EU28 menu; the course is set

#TwitterisblockedinTurkey and so is Erdogan

JADE Generations Club 2015: Knowledge vs. competences – Do not wait for the change to happen, but make it happen

Gig economy: Employment Committee MEPs want to boost workers’ rights

A Young student assesses the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)

“Joining forces to #BeatPollution”, a Sting Exclusive by the Head of UNEP in Brussels

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s