Real EU unemployment rate at 10.2%+4.1%+4.7%: Eurostat Update

Marianne Thyssen, Member of the European Commission in charge of Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labor Mobility, gave a press conference to present the EC proposed guidance to member states to better help long-term unemployed return to work. Date: 17/09/2015. Location: Brussels - EC/Berlaymont. © European Union, 2015 / Source: EC - Audiovisual Service / Photo: Georges Boulougouris.

Marianne Thyssen, Member of the European Commission in charge of Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labor Mobility, gave a press conference to present the EC proposed guidance to member states to better help long-term unemployed return to work. Date: 17/09/2015. Location: Brussels – EC/Berlaymont. © European Union, 2015 / Source: EC – Audiovisual Service / Photo: Georges Boulougouris.

This newspaper has been closely following the evolution of real unemployment over the past few years, on the base of Eurostat statistics. It has proved that real unemployment is much higher than the official rates. In January 2014 the European Sting, using Eurostat data, found that, in the third quarter of 2013 real unemployment was double than the official percentage. Last week, Eurostat, the EU statistical service, released the detailed results of its 2015 Labour Force Survey. Again, Eurostat found that apart from the 23 million of the ‘officially’ unemployed EU citizens, there are millions more who could be counted as unemployed.

The reason for this discrepancy is that the EU follows the UN’s International Labour Organisation definition of unemployment, which excludes from been counted as jobless certain forms of idleness. There are three forms of joblessness which do not count as unemployment, according to this UN-ILO definition. Firstly, it’s the part-timers who want to work full-time but cannot find an appropriate job. Then, there are the jobless persons seeking a job but not being immediately available for work, and lastly, the jobless who are available for work, but are not seeking a job.

Unemployed part-timers?

Now let’s dig into the data that Eurostat released last week for 2015. For one thing, the EU’s statistical service found that, last year, “Among the population aged 15 to 74 in the European Union (EU), 220 million were employed, 23 million were unemployed and 136 million were economically inactive”. However, among the 220 million of employed persons a rough percentage of 20% worked part-time (44.7 million). Of those part-timers a round number of 10 million persons wanted to work more, but couldn’t find a full time job. Understandably, those 10 million people are at least underemployed.

However, they do not differ largely from the unemployed, because if they could find a normal full time job, they would have got it. In essence, then, and from a macroeconomic point of view, they can be classified in the unemployment region of the labor market. Eurostat didn’t release the information about what percentage of the total labor force which those 10 million of ‘underemployed’ part-timers represent. However, ‘The European Sting’ indirectly estimated it at 4.1%. The survey reckons though that they represent 4.6% of total employment. Understandably, total employment is a smaller figure than the total labor force.

Seeking a job but not being available or don’t seek at all

Now let’s pass on to the other two categories of unemployment. In this category belong those who are seeking a job but are not immediately available plus those who are available but are not seeking a job. The former category possibly includes students towards the end of their studies or training. The latter group is probably made up mainly by women and older men who are tired of looking for a job without success and have settled down in one way or another. Eurostat calls them collectively as ‘potential additional labor force’. This definition though refers directly to straightforward unemployment.

According to Eurostat, those last two categories of unemployed are estimated to be 11.44 million people. The statistical service also released their percentage of the total labor force at 4.7%. At this point, it must be reminded that Eurostat didn’t directly release the percentage of the total labor force of the part-timers who want to work more. It seems then that the EU statistical service may consider the part-timers as employed persons and the other two categories as unmistakably unemployed.

What does Eurostat think?

The idea behind this assumption about what the EU statisticians think, is that for the part-timers Eurostat doesn’t directly give us their percentage on the total labor force, so as to discourage media from outright adding it to the official unemployment percentages. It does however supply us with the percentage regarding those seeking employment but not being available and those who are available but not seeking at 4.7%. In short, Eurostat tells us that this 4.7% can be outright added to the official unemployment rates, while the statisticians are not sure if the part-timers who want to work more, can also be added to the official unemployment rates, in order to arrive at the real rate.

In a statistical or macroeconomic debate though, it can be very easily defended, that all those three categories must be added to the real rate, in order to calculate the real unemployment percentage of the total labor force. A deficit in job offers clearly means unemployment in any economic theory. In short, the percentages of 4.1% and 4.7% have to be added to the official March 2016 unemployment rate of 10.2%. This would add up to a pretty good estimate of the real unemployment at around 19%.

the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

More funds needed to counter ‘persistent and multi-faceted humanitarian problems’ in Ethiopia

Commission publishes guidance on coronavirus-related humanitarian aid to Syria despite sanctions

Teamgum @ TheNextWeb 2014

A letter from Italy: Our insecurity in COVID-19 times

Companies that put employees first perform better

Vile act of torture prohibited ‘under all circumstances’, UN chief affirms on International Day to support victims

The power of partnership: joining forces to fight financial crime

Speak up for health care workers’ safety

Intervene, don’t overthink – the new mantra of systems design

8000 young people in the EP in Strasbourg: “a breath of fresh air for EU democracy”

This is what happened to CO2 emissions in the EU last year

From Israel’s ‘start-up nation’, 4 lessons in innovation

3.7 million lives could be saved by 2025 if health services ramp up nutrition actions: WHO

You can live up to 10 years longer by doing these 5 things

Statement by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría on the outcome of COP 25

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte: “Europe must listen to the people”

Integration of migrants: Commission launches a public consultation and call for an expert group on the views of migrants

European Youth Forum welcomes strong stance on human rights in State of the Union

Why rich countries are seeing more poverty

Quality of air in Bucharest-Romania: is it fog or is it smog?

Commission reaches agreement with collaborative economy platforms to publish key data on tourism accommodation

This is how we can feed the planet while saving the ocean

Genocide threat for Myanmar’s Rohingya greater than ever, investigators warn Human Rights Council

Mental health and suicide prevention

World Migratory Bird Day highlights deadly risks of plastic pollution

UN chief expresses solidarity with Indonesian authorities after flash floods kill dozens in Papua

‘Path to peace’ on Korean Peninsula only possible through diplomacy and full denuclearization: US tells Security Council

9 climate tipping points pushing Earth to the point of no return

EU Ombudsman investigates the European Commission

Humanitarian aid: €7 million for disaster preparedness in Southern Africa and Indian Ocean region

MEPs approve €585 million to support refugees from Syria

How can we make entrepreneurship serve the greater good?

Can the world take the risk of a new financial armageddon so that IMF doesn’t lose face towards Tsipras?

We need to build a quantum security coalition. Here’s why

A Sting Exclusive: “The challenge of Society’s digital transformation”, Spanish Minister of Spain for Industry, Energy and Tourism José Manuel Soria live from European Business Summit 2015

China’s lead in the global solar race – at a glance

How COVID-19 can be the Great Reset toward global sustainability

UN food agency begins ‘last resort’ partial withdrawal of aid to opposition-held Yemeni capital

The World Bank’s 2020 country classifications explained

Venezuela: Competing US, Russia resolutions fail to pass in Security Council

On Kristallnacht anniversary, UN chief urges renewed fight against ‘crime’ of anti-Semitism

The EU has to prove it can remain one piece

Politics needs to “Youth UP” in order the ensure the future of our democracies

5 reasons to protect mangrove forests for the future

States with power and influence to end suffering of Yemenis must take action ‘immediately’ – UN rights chief

COVID-19: Both WHO and Europe must learn from the current pandemic, say MEPs

Italy’s revised budget remains roughly unchanged waiting for Europe’s fury

Tropical Cyclone Idai affects 1.5 million across Mozambique and Malawi, as UN ramps up response

Germany rules the banking industry of Eurozone

Google strongly rejects EU antitrust charges and now gets ready for the worst to come

Labels for tyres: deal for greener and safer road transport

Why people with disabilities are your company’s untapped resource

The Fourth Industrial Revolution must not leave farming behind

Agreement on linking the emissions trading systems of the EU and Switzerland

Political solution ‘long overdue’ to protect the children of eastern Ukraine

Europe plans to send satellites into space to monitor CO2 emissions

UN General Assembly President upholds value of multilateralism in speech closing annual debate

‘Air bridge’ vaccination operation begins for Ebola-hit communities in DR Congo

More Stings?

Advertising

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s