Real EU unemployment rate at 10.2%+4.1%+4.7%: Eurostat Update

Marianne Thyssen, Member of the European Commission in charge of Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labor Mobility, gave a press conference to present the EC proposed guidance to member states to better help long-term unemployed return to work. Date: 17/09/2015. Location: Brussels - EC/Berlaymont. © European Union, 2015 / Source: EC - Audiovisual Service / Photo: Georges Boulougouris.

Marianne Thyssen, Member of the European Commission in charge of Employment, Social Affairs, Skills and Labor Mobility, gave a press conference to present the EC proposed guidance to member states to better help long-term unemployed return to work. Date: 17/09/2015. Location: Brussels – EC/Berlaymont. © European Union, 2015 / Source: EC – Audiovisual Service / Photo: Georges Boulougouris.

This newspaper has been closely following the evolution of real unemployment over the past few years, on the base of Eurostat statistics. It has proved that real unemployment is much higher than the official rates. In January 2014 the European Sting, using Eurostat data, found that, in the third quarter of 2013 real unemployment was double than the official percentage. Last week, Eurostat, the EU statistical service, released the detailed results of its 2015 Labour Force Survey. Again, Eurostat found that apart from the 23 million of the ‘officially’ unemployed EU citizens, there are millions more who could be counted as unemployed.

The reason for this discrepancy is that the EU follows the UN’s International Labour Organisation definition of unemployment, which excludes from been counted as jobless certain forms of idleness. There are three forms of joblessness which do not count as unemployment, according to this UN-ILO definition. Firstly, it’s the part-timers who want to work full-time but cannot find an appropriate job. Then, there are the jobless persons seeking a job but not being immediately available for work, and lastly, the jobless who are available for work, but are not seeking a job.

Unemployed part-timers?

Now let’s dig into the data that Eurostat released last week for 2015. For one thing, the EU’s statistical service found that, last year, “Among the population aged 15 to 74 in the European Union (EU), 220 million were employed, 23 million were unemployed and 136 million were economically inactive”. However, among the 220 million of employed persons a rough percentage of 20% worked part-time (44.7 million). Of those part-timers a round number of 10 million persons wanted to work more, but couldn’t find a full time job. Understandably, those 10 million people are at least underemployed.

However, they do not differ largely from the unemployed, because if they could find a normal full time job, they would have got it. In essence, then, and from a macroeconomic point of view, they can be classified in the unemployment region of the labor market. Eurostat didn’t release the information about what percentage of the total labor force which those 10 million of ‘underemployed’ part-timers represent. However, ‘The European Sting’ indirectly estimated it at 4.1%. The survey reckons though that they represent 4.6% of total employment. Understandably, total employment is a smaller figure than the total labor force.

Seeking a job but not being available or don’t seek at all

Now let’s pass on to the other two categories of unemployment. In this category belong those who are seeking a job but are not immediately available plus those who are available but are not seeking a job. The former category possibly includes students towards the end of their studies or training. The latter group is probably made up mainly by women and older men who are tired of looking for a job without success and have settled down in one way or another. Eurostat calls them collectively as ‘potential additional labor force’. This definition though refers directly to straightforward unemployment.

According to Eurostat, those last two categories of unemployed are estimated to be 11.44 million people. The statistical service also released their percentage of the total labor force at 4.7%. At this point, it must be reminded that Eurostat didn’t directly release the percentage of the total labor force of the part-timers who want to work more. It seems then that the EU statistical service may consider the part-timers as employed persons and the other two categories as unmistakably unemployed.

What does Eurostat think?

The idea behind this assumption about what the EU statisticians think, is that for the part-timers Eurostat doesn’t directly give us their percentage on the total labor force, so as to discourage media from outright adding it to the official unemployment percentages. It does however supply us with the percentage regarding those seeking employment but not being available and those who are available but not seeking at 4.7%. In short, Eurostat tells us that this 4.7% can be outright added to the official unemployment rates, while the statisticians are not sure if the part-timers who want to work more, can also be added to the official unemployment rates, in order to arrive at the real rate.

In a statistical or macroeconomic debate though, it can be very easily defended, that all those three categories must be added to the real rate, in order to calculate the real unemployment percentage of the total labor force. A deficit in job offers clearly means unemployment in any economic theory. In short, the percentages of 4.1% and 4.7% have to be added to the official March 2016 unemployment rate of 10.2%. This would add up to a pretty good estimate of the real unemployment at around 19%.

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the European Sting Milestones

Featured Stings

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Parlamentarians to “break up” with reality in the Google antitrust case

EU’s guidelines on net neutrality see the light although grey areas do remain

The US banks drive the developing world to a catastrophe

“Health and environment first of all”, EU says with forced optimism after 7th round of TTIP talks

Germany readies to pay for the Brexit gap in EU finance

China Unlimited Special Report: The trip to China

COP21 Breaking News_03 December: UNFCCC Secretariat Launches Forest Information Hub

Time to be welcome: Youth work and integration of young refugees

EU to negotiate an FTA with Japan

Ukrainian civil war: Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Turkey to let EU alone struggle with the migrant crisis while enhancing its economic ties with Russia instead?

IQ scores have been falling for decades, new study finds

“As German Chancellor I want to be able to cope with the merger of the real and digital economy”, Angela Merkel from Switzerland; the Sting reports live from World Economic Forum 2015 in Davos

EU-Turkey relations: Will Turkey manage to revive the EU accession process talks?

Armenia should take vigorous measures against entrenched corruption

Virtual Doctor: a core part of modern healthcare?

‘Jerusalem is not for sale’ Palestinian President Abbas tells world leaders at UN Assembly

G20 LIVE: G20 Leaders’ Communiqué Antalya Summit, 15-16 November 2015

Eurozone: Inflation plunge to 0.4% in July may trigger cataclysmic developments

World response to AIDS epidemic at a ‘critical juncture’

On International Youth Day the European Youth Forum calls for true youth participation

Time is running out to protect Africa’s forests

EU Commission: Growth first then fiscal consolidation

Plastic Oceans: MEPs back EU ban on polluting throwaway plastics by 2021

Chinese economy to raise speed and help the world grow

Why social working cultures are happier and more productive

Remembering Kofi Annan

Half of all mental illness begins by the age of 14

EU to increase spending and improve delivery of education in emergencies and protracted crises

An alternative view of Globalization 4.0, and how to get there

UN says ‘many humanitarian achievements’, one year after ouster of ISIL from Mosul

The movement of anti-vaccers: taking humanity back 200 years

Apple’s tax avoidance scheme remains as creative as their new iPhone

Europe turns out more jobs this summer

Politics still matter in the US but not in Europe

Mali: Presidential elections critical to consolidate democracy, says UN peacekeeping chief

Youth and Participation: are the people rising up in Spain? 


Legal Manager – 2050

How to provide health education and thus create better health systems

Road injuries leading cause of death for the young, despite safety gains: UN report

UN condemns ‘heinous’ suicide attack on education centre in Afghanistan

The shrinking Arctic ice protects us all. It’s time to act

New skills needed for medical students in Industry 4.0

Transition between education and employment: how the internship culture is threatening the foundations of our education

Eurozone: Retail sales and inflation point to recession

Why do medical curricula shouldn’t neglect the Sustainable Development Goals

Why medicine is relevant to the battle against climate change

Fisheries: Commission proposes measures to conserve stocks of deep-sea species in the North-East Atlantic

Syria: Guterres concerned over reported attacks in Idlib, calls for ‘full investigation’

Discovering Europe: Free EU rail pass for 18 year olds

Want a fairer society? This economist says he has the answer

The banks first to benefit from the new euro trillion ECB plans to print

These European countries produce the most plastic waste per person

Storms and snow in Lebanon worsen plight for Syrian refugees

Better protection against non-cash payment fraud

Can big events really go plastic-free? A water capsule made from seaweed may be the answer

‘Collective amnesia’ over causes of global financial crash – human rights expert

Superbugs: MEPs advocate further measures to curb use of antimicrobials

Why are the Balkans’ political leaders meeting in Geneva this week?

UN chief appoints Luis Alfonso de Alba as Special Envoy for the 2019 Climate Summit

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s