The new general election will secure Greece’s position in Eurozone; at least for some time

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek Prime Minister, leaving the European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg after delivering a speech. He was strongly criticized by some MEPs for his decision to hold a referendum on 5 July on the bailout terms for the country’s sovereign debt crisis but others praised him for that. (European Commission Audiovisual Services, Date: 07/07/2015).

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek Prime Minister, leaving the European Parliament plenary in Strasbourg after delivering a speech. He was strongly criticized by some MEPs for his decision to hold a referendum on 5 July on the bailout terms for the country’s sovereign debt crisis but others praised him for that. (European Commission Audiovisual Services,
Date: 07/07/2015).

The very next day that the Greek government signed a three year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for a new stability support program of €86 billion with the European Commission, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras triggered an early legislative election. To do this he had to resign and according to the constitution, the President of the Republic has to separately and successively mandate the second and the third largest parliamentary party to form a new government. Quite predictably this will prove impossible and the country will have to hold a general election on 20 or 27 September.

25 deputies left SYRIZA

Today the President of the Republic is expected to ask the third largest Parliamentary party the ‘Popular Unity’ to form a government. This political formation is a last minute arrival and is made of by 25 deputies who abandoned the governing SYRIZA exactly because this party under Tsipras signed the MoU with the European Union. In doing this the 25 deputies left the government in the air without a Parliamentary majority. They propose that the country should abandon the euro area and possibly the EU altogether, denounce its foreign debts, introduce a national currency, the new drachma, and search for a wider strategic alliance with non Western countries like the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), Venezuela, Argentina and other dubious allies. To be noted, that the BRICS have never invited Greece to join their New Development Bank (NDB).

During the past few weeks all the 25 and some more have voted down in Parliament Tsipras’ choices to accept the harsh terms of the third MoU which the country signed with its creditors in order to stay in the Eurozone and continue using the euro. The President of ‘Popular Unity’, Panagiotis Lafazanis, is a back room gray personality who has been steadily opposing Tsipras’ leadership in SYRIZA. All along the past months, even before the 25 January election that brought SYRIZA to power, this left wing collection of groupings, lacked a common vision about their political goals nor did they share a collective ideological identity.

Can Tsipras do it again?

Now, after this group of extreme left wingers abandoned SYRIZA the party is becoming much more manageable and the power of its President Tsipras is not contested seriously any more. By the same token, SYRIZA becomes an option for a much wider spectrum of voters ranging from the left to center and even the center right. After the partitioning of the 25 extreme left-wingers, SYRIZA is now shifting in full towards the center closing in fast towards the social democratic part of the political spectrum. Predictably, this hasty transition will greatly increase its audience. Together with the general resentment against the two old parties, New Democracy (center right) and the socialist PASOK, which alternately governed the country for the last forty years, Tsipras can logically expect a new victory in the coming election.

His problem will be though that he may not gain an absolute majority in a house of 300. In such a case he may need one or more parties to form a coalition government. But then again there will be no shortage of volunteers. Practically all the political parties that support the Eurozone option for the country will be available to cooperate. Not to forget that it was with their votes in the Parliament that Tsipras could pass all the latest harsh conditions in order to keep Greece inside the Eurozone.

A three year support

To this effect, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), Europe’s firewall established in 2012 in response to the global financial crisis, will disburse up to €86bn in loans over the next three years, provided that the Greek authorities implement reforms to address fundamental economic and social challenges, as specified in the MoU. To be noted that all the financial needs of Greece will be covered exclusively by EU sources.

The International Monetary Fund has refrained from participating in the Greek agreement. It may join again the creditors’ lines if Athens conforms to the obligations it undertook and again only if an “explicit and concrete agreement” on a debt relief from the country’s Eurozone creditors is signed. For the time being the IMF acts as a technical advisor in the negotiations with Greece. This stance signifies a strong differentiation between Washington and Berlin vis-à-vis the Greek case and also in Eurozone’s economic policies in general.

Most need the euro

Coming back to Greece’s internal political spectrum, one finds that it is not any more compartmented only under the traditional left-center-right division. The option of staying or leaving Eurozone and possibly the European Union in general runs within the entire political horizon from end to end. The fascist Golden Down and the long-established communist party (KKE) are both adamant in supporting a Grexit, the exit from Eurozone and possibly from the EU. The new extreme left ‘Popular Unity’ formation of 25 deputies has joined this club. On the other side of the fence the rest of SYRIZA under Tsipras, New Democracy, PASOK and Potami (River) support Greece’s position in Eurozone at any cost. Those are the parties of the present Parliament though. The next election may produce more legislative parties which would attain the 3% threshold.

As things stand now in the next election the average voter will have to answer two questions. Firstly, he or she will have to decide if they want Greece to stay in Eurozone. Then they will have to choose the party which will be best placed to restart the economy and minimize the adverse effects from the new MoU Greece just agreed with the European Union. Obviously, this choice is not related only with the left or right orientation of the parties.

Predicting the results of the election

Two more factors are to decide the results of the next election. The first is Tsipras’ personal appeal to the general public. The next thing may be Lafazanis’ decision to advertise or not his convictions about the drachma. If ‘Popular Unity’ is not able to avoid the earmarking of the ‘drachma party’, the new party will not be able to heavily undercut on SYRIZA. Around 70% of the population resents the return to the drachma and more people are afraid of a singular Greek path outside the Eurozone and the EU.

It’s still a bit early perhaps to safely predict the outcome of the September vote, but SYRIZA’s first place is not disputed by many political analysts. It’s also certain that the pro-Eurozone parties will gain a large overall majority against the drachma lovers.

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the European Sting Milestones

Featured Stings

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Women in video games: ‘Accept it, or don’t buy the game’

EU and China in search of a win-win agreement through strategic cooperation ahead of the EU-China summit

How to build an entrepreneurial university

We are witnessing a revolution in genomics – and it’s only just begun

Tsipras imposes more austerity on insolvent Greece; plans to win new early election soon

IMF: How To Deal With Failed Banks

Climate change is a security threat. We must act now

230 Junior Entrepreneurs and over 70 guests attended the International Congress on “Entrepreneurial Skills for Youth”

YOUTH WILL BE A KEY FOCUS IN THE NEXT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

EU-Russia summit in the shadows of Kiev’s fumes

Making money from meeting the SDGs? An overarching approach to sustainable development.

GSMA Outlines New Developments For MWC19 Shanghai

The EU Commission fails to draw the right conclusions about corruption

Security Council urges countries to factor child protection into conflict prevention efforts

Containers at the port of Tokyo. (Copyright: European Union, 2016. Source: EC - Audiovisual Service. Photo: Haruyoshi Yamaguchi)

EU cuts fast-track free trade deals with Japan and Singapore and leads the trade scene

They won this year’s Nobel for economics. Here’s why their work matters

7 key challenges for the future of ASEAN – and how to solve them

‘Address root causes’ of instability in Mali through ‘aid and support’ urges UN chief

Capitalism’s greatest weakness? It confuses price with value

As Syria conflict enters ninth year, humanitarian crisis ‘far from over’, Security Council hears

What will it take for the world’s third-largest economy to empower women?

Why do medical students seek for work abroad?

This is how Britain saved some of its most precious wildlife from the threat of extinction

Parliament and Council agree drastic cuts to plastic pollution of environment

UN agency helps stranded Ethiopians return home, ending ‘harrowing migration ordeal’

‘We are nowhere closer’ to Israeli-Palestinian peace deal, than a year ago, Security Council hears

EU unveils plan to accelerate Capital Markets Union ahead of London’s departure from the bloc

2018 ‘terrifying’ for Yemenis but ultimately a ‘year for hope’ says UN Special Envoy

How can the EU hit net-zero emissions?

Parallel downfalls of Merkel and Deutsche Bank threaten Germany and Europe

Trump enrages the Europeans and isolates the US in G7

ECB’s €1.14 trillion again unifies Eurozone; Germany approves sovereign debt risks to be pooled

Break taboo around menstruation, act to end ‘disempowering’ discrimination, say UN experts

Doctors are humans too: the benefits of embracing your mental status

UN summits to urge ‘ambition and action’ on climate change, sustainable development: Guterres

Women still struggle to find a job, let alone reach the top: new UN report calls for ‘quantum leap’

Urgently address ‘defining challenges of our time’, to empower youth worldwide, top UN official tells forum

Finland, Switzerland and New Zealand lead the way at teaching skills for the future

Why does the whole world want Britain to stay in the EU?

The EU slams Theresa May’s Brexit option; sets base for own European defense, security platform

Cross-roads

A safer, more dignified journey for all migrants, tops agenda at global conference in Marrakech

Employment and Social Developments in Europe: 2018 review confirms positive trends but highlights challenges, in particular linked to automation and digitalisation

Rule of Law: Commission launches infringement procedure to protect the independence of the Polish Supreme Court

Food safety: New rules to boost consumer trust approved by MEPs

Be a part of the World Forum on Future Trends in Defence and Security

After Rio Grande tragedy, UNICEF chief highlights ‘dire’ detention centres on US-Mexico border

The historic accomplishment of a seamless EU patent and intellectual property space

Consumer product quality: MEPs take aim at dual standards

Microsoft says the internet is getting a little nicer

These are the world’s most tree-covered countries

Greece bailout ends but with no substantial effect on citizens’ life

Why the ocean holds the key to sustainable development

Worldwide consumer confidence has shot up to its highest level for four years according to a survey of 130 Global Retail leaders

The European Agenda on Migration: EU needs to sustain progress made over the past 4 years

Can North Korea and the U.S. strike a nuclear deal?

More children killed by unsafe water, than bullets, says UNICEF chief

5 leadership lessons I learned from doing my own ‘undercover boss’

Cameron readies to support ‘yes’ for Britain in the EU

The British “nonsense”, the relaxed Commissioner and the TTIP “chiaroscuro” at this week’s Council

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s