The Ukrainian crisis to destabilize Europe and the world for a long time

Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine (on the right) and Herman van Rompuy, President of the European Council both hold the Association Agreements signed between EU and Ukraine. José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission (on the left) applauds. (EC Audiovisual Services, 27/06/2014).

Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine (on the right) and Herman van Rompuy, President of the European Council both hold the Association Agreements signed with the EU. José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission (on the left) applauds. (EC Audiovisual Services, 27/06/2014).

The Kiev government and the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko may be celebrating their military victory in ‘recapturing’ the rebel town of Sloviansk, but they don’t seem to mind much about the future. For one thing the pro-Russian rebels have not been defeated, at least not yet; they withdrew from the northern parts of the Donetsk region and have concentrated their forces in the city of Donetsk. To uproot them from this city of one million inhabitants, Poroshenko has to order his troops (made up mainly of irregulars recruited from Maidan’s right winger if not fascist fighters) to bombard large residential areas even from the air.

Only in this way Kiev can ‘recapture’ Donetsk city, repeating the same tactics used so far in taking back Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. This time though the number of civilian casualties and the wave of refugees could reach such levels as force to the UN to intervene. If this will be the case then the entire Donetsk region may be placed under some kind of international dictate, a situation which could lead to a de facto autonomy, as it happened in Kosovo and Bosnia. This is what Kiev ostentatiously wants to avoid, but practically the government pushes things in the opposite direction by using only military, that is non-political, means to win back the eastern provinces.

Divisions to haunt the long-term horizon

However dreadful the short-term scenarios may be, the long term prospects are more predictable and dangerous. ‘Conquered’ militarily by Kiev, the predominantly Russian speaking regions of east Ukraine would, at no time in the foreseeable future, become again an integral part of this country. Not after this poisonous civil war which has unearthed the old divisions between the western and eastern territories of Ukraine.

The Maidan ‘regiments’ of the extreme right or even fascist Svoboda and Right Sector political formations prevailing in Kiev and the western zones of the country, may in the end score one bloodstained victory over the Russian speaking easterners. Nevertheless, such an outcome in no way can constitute a long term platform for peaceful coexistence.

Unquestionably, a military and blood-spattered victory of the west over the east part of the country and the witch hunt which is certain to follow, would deepen the divisions. For many years to follow, the bloodshed and the certain economic catastrophe of the eastern provinces, devastated by the civil war, would haunt the governance of Kiev over the east. If the government and the President then fall in the trap to handle the eastern protests and grievances with force and a revengeful attitude (a sure possibility), then the civil war will continue in the foreseeable future. The confrontation between Kiev and the eastern provinces would then pass to a less violent phase but it will continue to plague the political, economic and social life of the country.

The civil war is not over

Still Kiev has not regained control of the entire eastern part of Ukraine and the fighting goes on. Predicting the end of any military confrontation is a rather tricky business. The same is true for this one. On top of that, uncertainty is heightened by the fact that the Ukrainian crisis has transformed the latent for many years confrontation between Russia and the West (US and the EU) into an all-out confrontation, with hidden military characteristics, visible traces of intelligence clashes and, an unseen after the Vietnam war, media battle.

Already the Ukrainian crisis has created a new deep partitioning of the entire Old Continent. Moscow has come to reconsider its strategic economic orientation and has started looking eastwards towards China, eyeing new markets for its abundant raw materials and hydrocarbons, and also looking for additional sources of technology inputs and investments. In short, the Ukrainian predicament leads the entire world to a new cold war.

More dangerous divisions

Unfortunately, this new division of the world into pro-Western and pro-Russian parts is more insecure than the old partition between communism and capitalism. The existence of more power centers like for example the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) occupying north Iraq and south Syria, are creating untested before grounds. Add to that the nuclear aspirations of Iran and the Chinese aggressiveness in South-East Asia and you come up with an explosive state in world affairs.

Yet of all those dangerous developments in our brave new world, Europe is the most complicated one. Take for example France. If Marine Le Pen comes even close to winning the next Presidential election, the EU will be greatly undermined and Brussels’ role as a compromise and quarrel solving platform will be perilously diminished. Not to forget that Le Pen has built up excellent relations with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The new global divisions

All in all, the Ukrainian crisis will continue to generate uncertainty and security risks firstly for Europe and then for the entire world. The new division between the West and Russia may even suit Vladimir Putin’s internal power system, securing his authority for years. Rather obviously then, the main players, Washington and Moscow are using their leverage in this conflict not to secure peace for Europe but to serve their own interests.

 

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the European Sting Milestones

Featured Stings

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Opposite cultures: Should it be a problem?

Afghanistan: UN ‘unequivocally condemns’ attack in Kabul

Access to ‘affordable’ medicines in India: challenges & solutions

1st Exclusive High Level Dialogue: China-EU Cybersecurity and 5G Cooperation

Brexiteer May gets lip-service from Trump and Turkish promises from Erdogan

Myanmar: Conflict resolution at ‘total standstill’, military commanders must answer for crimes against humanity

Mergers: Commission approves GlaxoSmithKline’s acquisition of Pfizer’s Consumer Health Business, subject to conditions

Data exchanges: Strengthening Europol cooperation with non-EU countries

Eurogroup asked to reduce public debts of its member states

Second Facebook-Cambridge Analytica hearing: impact on privacy, voting and trust

What can stop the ‘too big to fail’ bankers from terrorising the world?

Human rights champions from across the world receive top UN prize

Iceland won’t talk with Brussels about EU accession

The European Sting @ Mobile World Congress 2014, Creating What’s Next for the World. Can EU Policy follow?

Commission proposes fishing opportunities in the Atlantic and North Sea for 2019

A few, or rather two, trade and economic alliances may rule our brave new world

Eurozone: The cycle of deficits, debts and austerity revisited

Europe slammed by Turkey’s shaky Erdoğan; both playing with immigrants’ agony

Governments should step up their efforts to give people skills to seize opportunities in a digital world

We can save the Earth. Here’s how

INTERVIEW: Advancing human rights, a ‘never ending process’ says new UN rights chief

EU budget: Stepping up the EU’s role as a security and defence provider

Brexit talks started with a London handicap and Brussels’ sternness

An FTA between EU-US to hurt South Korea

Trying to cure bank cancer with analgesics

Get out, stay out: how financial resilience helps end poverty

The EU will always have a stable partner in Montenegro, says President Đukanović

MEPs approve boost to workers’ rights in the gig economy

Who is to pay the dearest price in a global slowdown?

The EU Commission to fight unemployment tsunami with a…scoreboard

Ebola fight ongoing amid evidence of ‘several massacres’ in DR Congo’s Ituri province

MWC 2016 LIVE: Intel focuses on 5G “beyond the Powerpoint”

How voice technology will change your life

Anti-vaccine sentiment one of 10 biggest health threats, says WHO

Planet’s Health is Our Health and the Reverse is True

Overseas investment falling, developing countries largely unscathed: UN trade agency

Yanukovych attempts a violent and deadly cleansing of Kiev’s center

EU leaders slammed on anti-tax evasion inaction and expensive energy

Is the EU denying its social character favouring a banking conglomerate?

“Austerity was not the alternative!”, President Hannes Swoboda of the European Socialists and Democrats on another Sting Exclusive

Mosul’s ‘3D contamination’ adds to challenges of deadly mine clearance work

‘Still time’ to stop a ‘bloody battle’ for Libya’s capital, insists Guterres

2019: An unpredictable, confrontational and financially ominous year

Camino de Santiago – a global community on our doorstep

New York and London mayors call on cities to divest from fossil fuels

The challenge of maintaining interest in Primary Health Care in medical students

Banks get new capital for free and citizens pay the bill

How trade tariffs could help combat climate change

This surgeon runs a makeshift hospital for over 200,000 people

European Parliament speaks out against “killer robots”

Yemen: 11 more ‘terrible, senseless’ civilian deaths reported, following attack in Sana’a – top UN official

Asking for more restriction on intra EU immigration: Unproductive and politically dangerous

Hiring is broken. Here’s how to fix it

A Sting Exclusive: “Change is challenge, change is opportunity”, Commissioner Bienkowska cries out live from European Business Summit 2015

Commission threatens Chinese firms with trade penalties

India is a latecomer to AI. Here’s how it plans to catch up

Algorithms are being used to convict criminals and decide jail time. We need to make sure they are fair

Companies can help solve water scarcity. Here’s how

Does the Greek deal strengthen the Eurozone? Markets react cautiously

More Stings?

Comments

  1. An idiot discusses the civil war detween the Sudeten Germans and the Csechs.

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s