2013, a Political Odyssey: What future for Italy?

By carlo_motta85@yahoo.it

As the economic crisis that affects the Eurozone, and probably all the western countries, keeps taking its toll, one feature of the whole situation seems to represent the real threat for Europe’s integrity: the growing distance between the “northern”, and the “southern” countries. This, which may appear as the same old story of differences and distances between two “blocks”, comes to be the biggest reasons for the politician’s anxieties just now. The indicators tell us that this is the first time in the post-1989 history that the Old Continent faces such deep gaps in terms of unemployment rates, inflation and loss of appeal for investors. So we have France, Benelux and Germany (of course) on a side, and Greece, Spain and Italy, which have paid the highest prices, on the other one.

Among the last three countries, which definitely represent the most consistent part of Southern Europe in terms of population, surface and economical potential, one seems to be like an open bet at the moment, more than the other two: Italy. Clearly it’s impossible to forget the importance that Greece has had during the years 2011 and 2012 in Europe’s political and economical scenarios, as the key role that Spain will play in building a safer and a more stable Eurozone in the next months, but Italy now seems to be the country everyone’s looking at for one main reason: the elections.

Of course we can start saying that a poll is always a crucial point of analysis for the Union, as that can really change the assets at any time, but there are several reasons why the Italian elections in February could turn into a real challenge for the Euro, which can possibly kick the crisis a little bit further, or open a new phase of uncertainty. First of all because of the assets that were made during the last year; we are now used to the Merkel-Hollande-Monti formation, with the “Draghi” overall direction which really influenced the global economy during the last months. Well, everybody can now spot the differences, according to his points of view and beliefs, that allegedly exist between the Merkel-Sarkozy-Berlusconi disposition. Same team? Ok, don’t think so. Even if somebody may think that a better job was done, nobody can even start saying that the results were the same. So we can now highlight the first reason why the Italian elections will determine the rise of a different asset, or the progress of an experimented one, for the next times.

This situation leads to another point of discussion: who’s the man? The situation will definitely be different with each candidate for the Premiership. Pierluigi Bersani is the leader of the Democratic Party (PD), and the candidate for the Italian centre-left wing, supported by Nichi Vendola’s radical left Party and surely closer to the labor unions’ convictions. According to the recent polls and the chats in front of an aperitivo in the Peninsula’s cafes, he is the most likely next Italian Prime Minister. Bersani seems to be oriented to proceed with the “Monti’s medicine” to find the right way to rebalance the highest ratio of sovereign debt to GDP in Europe (bar Greece), and not changing the strategies about the pension reform that was made by Monti’s ministers and about foreign affairs. Of course nothing will remain still, considering that we are talking about a centre-left oriented formation, with pulsing promises to the population’s poorest classes and, as said, to the labor unions.

Then we have an old and well-recognized player: Silvio Berlusconi. As everybody knows he has finally decided to “enter the field” again, and to be the leader of the right-oriented wing for the campaign. Or to try, at least. Italy’s right-oriented block no longer appears as it used to do a couple of years ago, with a lot of uncertainty around it. The North League will probably run on its own, both for the national election and for the regional elections in Lombardy (both to be held in February). And this is no little thing, if we consider that the radical federalist and regionalist party was Berlusconi’s strongest ally. Berlusconi’s program is not yet clear, as he seems to be concentrate in trying to regain a strong public approval and to convince the audience of the integrity of his party, Il Popolo della Libertà (The People of Freedom) too often hit by scandals. Il Cavaliere seems not to be as politically strong as he used to be in the past, and not really appealing for potential allies, but as an incredibly experienced communicator and an extremely rich media tycoon, he still represents an important figure in the Italian political scenario.

Finally we have the “Centre coalition” which revolves around Pier Ferdinando Casini’s  party (Unione Di Centro, a catholic-oriented centre party) and which is giving the audience the real piercing surprises (Berlusconi won’t be happy about this) and the deepest turmoil. And who’s the man here? Mr. Mario Monti. Ok, il Professore have not completely declared “I will run for the Viminale”, but this is actually what everyone expects to happen. Now, what are Monti’s chances? Monti’s government wins more plaudit from the markets than the public, as said recently by more analysts, and he is facing a consistent loss of popularity, which was inevitable. The indicators say that the rate of unemployment has jumped from a 8.8% a year ago to 11.1% (for young people there’s a good Christmas gift: a dramatic 36% rate), that the amount of taxes has raised significantly, that workers will retire later, and a lot of other things that immediately run to the people’s stomachs. But there are some other things to consider. Monti’s persona is quite widely appreciated in the Country and people seem to consider the whole thing. The spread between Italian BTP and German Bund has come today to 287 points (from a 550+ of late 2011), for example, which was one of Monti’s big challenges. Moreover investors seem now to look towards Italy with a more faithful eye, and last but not least, so does Europe.

Bersani seems to be the people’s man, even though the very first choice for Italian electors now is abstention; Monti seems to be Europe’s man, with the Old Continent’s leaders silently supporting him and hoping for a long era of integrity under his control; Berlusconi could be a surprise, with nobody really forecasting his victory but with a lot of analysts predicting a fast-growing importance for him in the next Italian Parliament. Who will be Italy’s next prime minister? How Europe will deal with him? Will things remain as they currently are?

This is the political scenario of the Bel Paese, but several are the situations which might come from the election. Italy, the third economy of the Euro Zone, can really be the country that will bring back faith to Southern European markets in the next two years or can be the crazy engine which can lead the train towards uncertain fields. The challenge is open, the time is close.

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Join the Hive!

the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

The next EU President will first have to drink his tea at Downing Street

Black Panther’s ‘General Okoye’ joins the fight against gender-based violence

ECB’s Draghi favours a cheaper euro to serve all Eurozone countries

Do not confuse food charity with ‘right to food’, UN expert tells Italians, labelling food system exploitative

Artificial intelligence summit focuses on fighting hunger, climate crisis and transition to ‘smart sustainable cities’

How India is harnessing technology to lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Consumers suffer three defeats

‘Crimes against humanity,’ ‘war crimes’ and risk of new ethnic violence in DR Congo, warn UN experts

The vehicles of our future

South Sudan’s foreseen genocide: from “Never Again” to “Again and Again and Again”?

Women to save Europe’s own labour resources

The new assembly lines: Why AI needs low-skilled workers too

How will the NATO-EU competition evolve in the post Brexit era?

Monday’s Daily Brief: human rights in the Near East and a Forum for Refugees

Gender equality and medicine in the 21st century: an equity unachieved

Vaccine hesitancy: a pregnancy related issue?

Erdogan’s electoral win on a ‘me or chaos’ dilemma means trouble for everybody

“None of our member states has the dimension to compete with China and the US, not even Germany!”, Head of EUREKA Pedro Nunes on another Sting Exclusive

US-North Korea summit in Singapore ‘a promising development’ says Guterres

UN chief appoints Luis Alfonso de Alba as Special Envoy for the 2019 Climate Summit

Use space technology to build a better world for all, urges UN chief

These 3 countries are global offshore wind powerhouses

A Sting Exclusive: “The competitiveness of Europe depends on a digital single market”, EPP President Joseph Daul highlights live from European Business Summit 2015

Juncker’s Investment Plan in desperate need for trust and funds from public and private investors

UN chief welcomes new push by El Salvador’s political parties to begin fresh dialogue

Crimea, a wicked game of political chess and a ‘big’ coincidence

Would you let an AI vote for you?

The EU adopted €297 million in concrete actions for refugees and local communities in Jordan and Lebanon

The German automotive industry under the Trump spell

Relieving the suffering of dying: Home Palliative Care as a spiritual coping strategy

What can Darwin teach the aviation industry about cybersecurity?

Burned in the Amazonian forest: Your health may be in danger

MEPs demand Bulgaria’s and Romania’s swift accession to Schengen area

‘No shortcuts to a healthier world’: WHO chief sets out health priorities for the decade

Stop violence against women: Statement by the European Commission and the High Representative

Nordic noir: The unhappiness epidemic affecting young people in the world’s happiest countries

Is the energy industry meeting its sustainability goals?

The European Sting Cookie Policy

The punishment gap: how workplace mistakes hurt women and minorities most

Why a cash-free future might not be as close as you think

UN agencies call for action to bolster rights of Europe’s stateless children

The hidden downsides of autonomous vehicles – and how to avoid them

Gaza blockade causes ‘near ten-fold increase’ in food dependency, says UN agency

Joint UN-Congolese strategy needed to address insecurity following deadly attacks

A refugee from Syria cries out: “I’m not just a number!”

European Youth Capital 2018 : Cascais

FROM THE FIELD: Persons with disabilities bike towards sustainability

Unemployment and immigrants haunt the EU; who can offer relief?

EU-China trade: closer ties as US-China trade battle brews

Amazon, a pair of shoes and my Data Privacy walks away

EU Commission: a rise in wages and salaries may help create more jobs

A poor kid died just now. Do you know why?

Hunger in Yemen: WFP considers aid suspension in face of repeated interference by some Houthi leaders

Discovering Europe: Free EU rail pass for 18 year olds

10 predictions for the global economy in 2019

Tuesday’s Daily Brief: Libya civil war, African displacement, global trade tensions, terrorists’ children ‘secretly detained’, and more

Green deal for Europe: First reactions from MEPs

Three ways China can make the New Silk Road sustainable

In the age of the tourism backlash, we need ‘destination stewards’

MEPs vote for upgrade to rail passenger rights

More Stings?

Comments

  1. Spot on with this write-up, I absolutely feel this amazing site needs
    much more attention. I’ll probably be returning to read through more, thanks for the advice!

  2. You’re so awesome! I don’t think I’ve truly read through a single thing like that
    before. So nice to discover somebody with a few genuine thoughts on this topic.
    Seriously.. many thanks for starting this up.

    This site is something that’s needed on the
    web, someone with some originality!

  3. Thanks for every other magnificent article. Where
    else may anyone get that kind of information in such an ideal applroach of
    writing? I’ve a presentation subsequent week, and I’m at
    the look for such information.

  4. Hi there to every one, the contents existing at this web
    page are genuinely amazing for people knowledge, well, keep up the
    nice work fellows.

  5. Thanks for some other informative web site.
    The place else may I am getting that kind of information
    written in such an ideal approach? I have a undertaking that I’m just now working on,
    and I’ve been at the glance out for such information.

  6. Spot on with this write-up, I absolutely believe that this amazing site needs far more attention.

    I’ll probably be returning to see more, thanks for the information!

  7. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an extremely long comment but after I clicked submit my comment
    didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again.
    Regardless, just wanted to say wonderful blog!

  8. Just deszire to say your article is as astounding.
    The clearness in your publieh is just ciol and that i could asssume you’re a professionsl in this
    subject. Fine along with your permission allow me to take hold of
    our feed to keep up to dawte with impending post. Thanks
    a million and please carry on the rewarding work.

  9. Hurrah, that’s what I was searching for,
    what a material! existing here at this blog, thanks admin of this
    web site.

  10. What’s up to all, the contents existing at this web site are truly amazing for people experience, well, keep up the good work fellows.

  11. Hi Dear, are you really visiting this website daily,
    if so then you will without doubt take good experience.

  12. Thank you for another informative web site. The place else may just I
    am getting that kind of information written in such an ideal manner?

    I’ve a mission that I am just now running on, and I have been at the
    glance out for such information.

  13. Amnesty International later accused Israel of war crimes due to its assault on Lebanese civilian infrastructure.
    Roland Barthes, a preeminent theorist of photography, said that photograph is the “sovereign contingency,” meaning it is dependent on something else happening.
    observers, which are serious violations of the laws of war because they violate the duty to
    take all feasible precautions to avoid civilian casualties.

  14. Just desire to say your article is as astounding. The clearness in your post is just excellent and i could assume you’re
    an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to grab your
    feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks
    a million and please carry on the gratifying work.

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s