Ukraine: $588 million recovery cost over the next 10 years

This article is published in association with United Nations.

Reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine will cost almost $588 million over the next decade, or nearly three times the estimated GDP in 2025, as housing, energy and other critical sectors continue to come under fire from Russian forces. 

The finding comes in the updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) issued on Monday by the Government, the World Bank Group, the European Commission and the United Nations. 

It was released as the war enters a fifth year, with direct damage now reaching over $195 billion – up from $176 billion in the previous assessment published last February.  

Rebuilding the nation 

RDNA5 covers the period from February 2022 to December 2025 and complements reform and investment efforts underway as Ukraine continues along the path to European Union (EU) accession. 

The sectors with the highest reconstruction and recovery needs are transport (over $96 billion), energy (nearly $91 billion) and housing (almost $90 billion).  Some $63 billion is needed to rebuild the commerce and industry sector, and over $55 billion for agriculture.

The cost of explosives hazard management and debris clearance is almost $28 billion, despite some progress in surveying and demining that helped to contain losses in the sector. 

Attacks on energy and transport

Housing, transport and energy are the worst hit. Moreover, damage, losses and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts (administrative regions) and major metropolitan areas.

Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, amid record winter temperatures. The result has been a roughly 21 per cent increase in damaged or destroyed assets since the last assessment.

Transport sector needs have increased by around 24 per cent due to intensified attacks on rail and ports over the past year, while 14 per cent of housing has been damaged or destroyed, impacting over three million households.

“Despite the widespread damage that continues to mount against Ukraine’s people, economy and infrastructure, the entire country continues to press on with remarkable strength and resolve,” said Anna Bjerde, World Bank Managing Director of Operations. 

Private sector investment 

The partners noted that the private sector – which has faced unprecedented disruption – will play a critical role in recovery and reconstruction.

However, unlocking the full potential of both domestic and international private investment will depend on sustained reforms to improve the business environment, strengthen competition, expand access to finance, address labour constraints, and align production with EU green and digital standards.

“Russia’s war of aggression continues to have a devastating impact on Ukraine,” said EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos.

She underlined that the regional bloc “will continue to play a key role in supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery”, including by mobilising more private investments and encouraging key reforms that will attract investment and bring the country closer to EU membership. 

Put people at the centre of recovery 

The UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine, Matthias Schmale, stressed that people are central to the country’s recovery.

 “Ukraine’s most critical asset is its people,” he said. “Refugee return, veteran reintegration, and women’s labor force participation will shape economic recovery as much as capital flows and rebuilding infrastructure. Recovery must be human-centered and community-based.” 

RDNA5 notes that the authorities are taking significant steps, with support from development partners, to meet recovery and reconstruction priorities for 2026.

This includes investment in funding for destroyed housing, demining and economic support programmes, totalling more than $15 billion. Additionally, at least $20 billion in needs have already been met since the war began through urgent repairs and early recovery activities in essential sectors such as housing, energy, education and transport.

“Amid unprecedented Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, our people show resilience, our entrepreneurs keep working. We still manage to recover fast and develop further,” said Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, thanking the UN and partners for their support.