Four years after the coup, Myanmar remains on the brink

This article is published in association with United Nations.

Four years after the military coup which plunged Myanmar into turmoil, the country is facing an unprecedented “polycrisis,” marked by economic collapse, intensifying conflict, complex climate hazards and deepening poverty, according to a new report by the UN Development Programme (UNDP).

Myanmar’s Enduring Polycrisis: Four Years into a Tumultuous Journey, launched on Wednesday, points to the bleak picture of a nation in freefall, with nearly half the population living below the poverty line, essential services crumbling and the economy in disarray.

With no political resolution in sight, the crisis is expected to worsen in the coming year.

“The coming year will test Myanmar’s resilience to its limits,” the report warns, calling for urgent international engagement to mitigate further suffering and prevent total collapse.

“A more stable and peaceful Myanmar that thrives on a legal economy, protects it human and natural resource assets and invests in the safety and prosperity of all its people is also in the self-interest of its neighbours and the international community writ large,” it added.

Source: UNDP

Myanmar’s economy has sharply declined since 2021.

Black market boom

Since 2020, Myanmar’s gross domestic product (GDP) has contracted by nine per cent, reversing the economic progress of the previous decade.

Inflation reached 25.4 per cent reached in 2024, further eroding household purchasing power. The trade deficit ballooned to 2.2 per cent of GDP, exacerbated by severe restrictions on cross-border commerce, and the currency plummeted over 1,330 kyat per US dollar in 2021 to 4,520 in 2025, making imports unaffordable and sending prices soaring.

The economic situation worsened further as the country was blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for failing to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.

Against this backdrop, Myanmar’s illicit economy is thriving and it has become the world’s leading producer of opium and heroin, and one of the largest manufacturers of methamphetamines.

The jade industry, valued at billions of dollars annually, remains largely unregulated, fuelling corruption and environmental degradation. Illegal gambling, human trafficking, and scam operations have flourished along the country’s porous borders.

Society in crisis

Myanmar’s ongoing conflict has displaced more than 3.5 million people within the country and driven many more across its borders. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) lack vital assistance and protections, and host communities are reeling under the strained resources.

Hunger is reaching catastrophic levels and agricultural productivity has declined by 16 per cent since 2021, largely due to conflict and climate-related disasters.

Fertilizer shortages, skyrocketing fuel prices, and trade disruptions have driven the price of the staple rice up by 47 per cent in some regions. The western state of Rakhine is particularly vulnerable, with food production projected to meet only 20 per cent of local needs by mid-2025, raising fears of famine-like conditions.

Public services are also severely affected, with over half of the country lacking access to electricity and hospitals out of service in conflict zones.

Looming brain drain

The dire economic and security situation has led to an exodus of Myanmar’s youth, with 3.7 million having migrated to Thailand by 2023. Many face exploitation and forced labour due to restrictive legal migration pathways, while those who remain are at risk of forced conscription into the military.

School enrolment rates have also dropped significantly as access to educational facilities has been disrupted by conflict and economic hardships. In the 2023/2024 academic year, over 20 per cent of children were not attending school.

Crisis or opportunity?

The outlook for Myanmar remains precarious. If current trends continue, poverty will rise further, migration will intensify and the country’s fragile economy will struggle under the weight of continued conflict and international isolation, the report warns.

Despite Myanmar’s deepening crisis, opportunities for recovery exist.

The report highlights the resilience of local communities and the potential of civil society organizations in rebuilding social cohesion. Engaging the diaspora through education and skills development could help retain and attract talent, while expanding opportunities for women in business and employment could boost household incomes.

Agricultural revitalisation, through climate-resilient crops and irrigation, is crucial for food security, while investment in environmental protection – such as reforestation and mangrove restoration – could safeguard jobs in the future.