President Xi’s European tours in France, Serbia and Hungary: China’s official last call to EU to ditch trade war parroting and come to its senses?

After five years China’s President Xi Jinping seized the momentum for a European tour, amidst tough trade tensions with the EU and a turbulent global scence. Why now?

First, a major anti-subsidy EU probe against Chinese electric cars is being cooked by Brussels in the coming weeks or so. Actually, the deadline for the EU to impose tariffs is the 4th of July, but June is most likely as this date coincides with the large US national day and nobody in Brussels wants to launch measures on this date as it would make it all “too subtle” about the real motives to go anti-China. One thing is for sure; this would be a major EU hit against China given that the latter has invested enormously in electric cars, producing good affordable electric cars for European consumers who don’t have to rob the bank to be able to buy a Tesla or so. To be noted that at the same time there is an ongoing Brussels investigation against major Chinese firms in the solar panel sector. In addition, Chinese microchips is another area that EU/US seem to eye nowadays.

Consequently, China is anticipated to respond firmly to all that and a fully fledged new trade war will officially start, scrapping all the fruits reaped by the EU economy from the profitable EU-China trade all these years. Indicatively, in 2023 China was the largest importer of goods in the EU with a colossal value of 514.4 billion euros. Of course, critics instead of seeing the glass half full they like to see it half empty by highlighting that the EU exported to China 223.5 billion euros, as if this was peanuts for the EU GDP. More so, isn’t the fact that the EU doesn’t export more to China the fault of the EU that hits the break on exports? In any case, a major point of Xi’s visit after so long is that the EU has better come to its senses and minimize hits on China or else the trade war will be, as it always is, a lose lose game. Needless to say that the one who will hurt the most is the EU consumer who will suffer a new economic crisis, larger inflation etc.

Let’s have a look though at Xi’s strategic stops in Europe, coupled with the semantics around them.

L’ Hexagone

The Chinese President was warmly welcomed by the French President Macron in Paris Orly which is a smaller airport and easier to handle safety-wise than CDG. Macron, notoriously known for being the charming people’s person, took Xi to his favourite foggy place from his childhood memories Pic du Midi in the French Pyrenees. This was an utmost frendship gesture from Macron toward Xi and at the same time a French act of reciprocation to Xi hosting previously Macron at Guangdong where Xi’s father used to be the Governor.

Otherwise, the two leaders expressed mutual appreciation and will to keep doing business as usual. Indicatively, Marcon said: “Our shared objective is to continue our relationship”…”There is no logic in decoupling from China. It’s a desire to preserve our national security, just as you do for your own. It’s a desire for mutual respect and understanding, and a desire to continue to open up trade, but to ensure that it is fully fair at all times, whether in terms of tariffs, aid or access to markets.”

Macron also offered to Xi some well known French cognac, with the innuendo that France appreciates China’s holding back from enforcing heavy tariffs on this premium product of the country. China’s Xi flagged that during his visit to France 18 cooperation aggreements were signed and called for greater collaboration with France in agriculture, finance, aerospace, nuclear and culture.

Indeed, France-China trade flourishes and the two sides are committed to keep doing so as Chinese exports to France climbed from less than $4 billion in 2001 to $42 billion in 2022 whereas French exports to China reached $25 billion.

On Israel’s war in Gaza and further escalation in Rafah, both leaders called for an immediate ceasefire and stop of the killing of many thousands of children and civilians. In fact, Xi took the extra mile by calling for an official ceasefire to kick off at the upcoming Paris Olympics according to international law.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated on the matter: “China and France condemn all violations of international humanitarian law, including all acts of terrorist violence and indiscriminate attacks against civilians. They recall the absolute imperative of protecting civilians in Gaza in accordance with international humanitarian law. The two heads of state expressed their opposition to an Israeli offensive on Rafah, which would lead to a humanitarian disaster on a larger scale, as well as to forced displacement of Palestinian civilians”… “The two heads of state stressed that an immediate and sustainable ceasefire is urgently needed to enable the delivery of large-scale humanitarian aid and the protection of civilians in the Gaza Strip. They called for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages and the guarantee of humanitarian access to meet their medical and other humanitarian needs, as well as respect for international law with regard to all detainees”.

President Macron didn’t forget to invite on the sideways the fierce anti-China taskforce chief, President of the EU Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen. She started by urging China to use its power to get Russia stop the war in Ukraine, as if this war was a Chinese business or as if she successfully urged EU’s strongest ally, the US, to have Israel stop its invasion in Gaza leaving thousands of children and civilians killed. She then asked China’s Xi to use China’s power to limit Iran’s goals in this area too. It seems that Xi has the power to stop all wars and conflicts in the world, or at least this is what Ursula believes. Otherwise, she likes to spread the blame to everyone that breathes in a desperate attempt to minimize how the EU’s numbness in the Gaza war looks, coupled with the inability to offer anything more than a few euros of humanitarian aid that nobody can every verify that saved any of the bombarded children in Gaza. The reality though is that the world knows that the EU hasn’t honored its Nobel Peace Prize neither in Gaza nor in Ukraine whereby the block offered little except for various rounds of sanctions against Russia that succeeded in making the latter richer whatsoever. Later she reitarated the EU’s will to hit Chinese electric cars, solar panels and raw materials.

Belgrade calling

After France China’s leader visited close ally Serbia, where he was welcomed as the country’s savior, with chanting Serbian crowds, red carpets and Chinese flags everywhere and the Serbs praising China for investing so much in their country and flooding with money the country’s coffers and providing jobs for the people. China has constructed all sorts of infrastructure in Serbia like bridges, highways, railway, defence technology. Let’s not forget that the Serbs are people that tend to show their gratitude to reward and have short memory span as they tend to like also the US for the investment in the country giving them sweet dollars, despite the purposeful and mistaken sweet Anerican bombs a few years ago.

The visit coincided with the 25th anniversary of the 1999 US bombing of the Chinese embassy, leaving 3 dead, by mistake according to the US. Xi though stated that China will never forget that mistake: “The Chinese people appreciate the peace but will never allow that a historic tragedy repeats itself”. He continued: “The friendship between China and Serbia which is soaked in blood that the two peoples spilled together has become a joint memory of the two peoples and will encourage both parties to make together huge steps forward”. He concluded “China will work together with the friendly people of Serbia and make tireless efforts to build a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era”.

Indeed, trade between Serbia and China peaked from a modest 450 million dollars in 2012 to more than 4 billion dollars in 2023. Likewise the Serbs export to China too starting from a shy 400 million dollars in 2020 to 1.3 billion dollars in 2023. Surely the 3 billion dollar package for economic support and military purchases has brought the countries closer, together with other investment like the Huawei investment in Belgrade cameras or the plethora of Chinese vaccines that were immediately available to the Serbs to recuperate from the pandemic.

One thing is for sure though, that while the Serbs wait for a long time during EU accession negotations China has stood by this proud country with hefty investments that helped it develop.

Buda and Pest

Since yesterday evening, Xi’s delegation is in Hungary, last stop in his European tour. Surely, Orban is a very amicable partner of Xi as the country has been open to Chinese investment and support. Hungary receives the lion’s share in Chinese investment in Europe with 9 billion dollars in 2023, inclusive of electric vehicles. To be noted that the Chinese leader in electric vehicles Great Wall Motor plans to open a car factory in Hungary in the coming years, boosting further Chinese investment in the country.

The country also hosts the largest population of Chinese people in Central Europe. Hungary, as an EU member is famous for distancing its stance on various EU policy matters, including EU statements on important Chinese matters like Hong Kong, South China Sea or BRI.

Summing up the checkmate

Xi’s visit in Europe was obviously very carefully planned and strategized with three checkmate moves. First move, he started with France, EU’s economic powerhouse and managed to be welcomed nicely with dances and cognac together with Macron’s cunning smiles stressing the importance of China to the omnipotent French economy. It is clear that moguls like LVMH, Alstom etc. will never want to disturb China in their so very lucrative business with the Asian giant.

Second move, he then continued with Serbia, who cheered for him more than what the Serbs cheer for their President. The country has been saved by Chinese investment while waiting till they grow white hair on their heads trying to be accepted in the EU.

Third move, he concluded with a great enthusiast and defender of China which is an EU member, Hungary.

The three moves inescably led to a Chinese checkmate with unelected Brussels EU administration being the opponent in this high level chess match. In other words, Xi showed to Ursula that EU’s strongest economy France will always be careful to preserve the so very prosperous trade with China, Serbia is a non-EU member state that is already a very fertile business for Chinese investment, while Hungary is an EU member state that cares very much for business with China and will soon open an BYD plant soon.

In short, the checkmate with the three moves leads Xi to an impressive win leaving Ursula reiterating in her statement the same things again and again, parroting EU and US intents for trade war with China. Though, with the aforementioned checkmate Brussels will definitely have to reconsider because simply put France and Hungary will not allow to hurt business with China too much whereas the Serbs will always be ready to accept the injured part of Chinese investment while they all grew old waiting for EU accession for 12 years now.