Tomorrow’s UK general election: Will Tories win majority to shoot an abrupt Brexit or a hung parliament will prolong January’s exit to 2050?

Visit of Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister, to the EC
Date: 17/10/2019. Location: Belgium, Brussels – EC/Berlaymont. © European Union, 2019
Source: EC – Audiovisual Service. Photographer: Lejeune Xavier

The United Kingdom is about to go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new Parliament with Boris Johnson struggling to ensure the majority in order to promote his “deal” with the European Union. Opinion polls show that the gap is narrowing between the Tories and the Labour parties but Boris Johnson is still ahead of the race.

The Brexit deal which is intended to be finalised by the leader of the Conservative party before the end of 2020 includes major challenges according to a leaked government document.

If the latter is true, then Tories’ leader will have a difficult time in implementing his agreement on time; something that the EU has already stated. Will Mr Johnson request another extension or proceed with an unfavourable trade deal with the EU?

Background

The UK citizens are going to the polls two and a half years after their previous general election in June 2017. The current elections are the first to be held in December since 1923 and the party that will receive more than 325 seats is the one to get the majority by forming a government that would decide about the fate of Brexit.

The main parties to claim the vote of the UK citizens are the Conservative and the Labour ones. Boris Johnson, leader of the Conservative party, supports a swift Brexit deal with the EU and has promised that will he make it real it before Santa Claus comes to town. However, Jeremy Corbyn, the main opponent of the Tories, has claimed that will ask for a second referendum to be held and provide the chance to the British people to decide again and again and again whether they want to stay or leave the Old Continent. As it seems, the country’s Brexit policy would be catalytic for the people to decide which side to take in Thursday’s elections.

Tories’ lead

All the opinion polls have a common ground so far; the win of Boris Johnson by several percentage points. The leader of the Labour party has managed to close the gap but it seems it would not be enough; pretty much the same story goes with him as political leader of such a historic party in the UK.

According to an Ipsos Mori poll released last Friday, Boris Johnson’s party remained at the the top leaving the Labour party behind by 12% whereas the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party slipped further from what was predicted in latest polls. Another survey conducted on December 7 by YouGov showed that Tories are leading the race by 43% and the Labour party following with 33%. Furthermore, it was outlined that the Greens and the Brexit Party are about to land on a slim 3% while the Liberal Democrats reached 13%.

However, the opinion poll published two days ago by ICM, picking a sample of 2.011 adults from December 6 to December 9, narrows the gap to six points. More specifically, the survey shows that the Conservatives remain at 42% while the Labour Party’s popularity rose to 36%. Liberal Democrats were at 12% and the Brexit Party remained at 3%.

Will the deal be implemented on time?

Boris Johnson keeps on insisting that the Brexit deal will be implemented by the end of next year but serious concerns are raised about it becoming feasible according to a leaked Whitehall memo drawn up by the “Department for Exiting the EU”. It is stated that it will be tough to create a new infrastructure in Northern Ireland within the next year.

In detail, the document outlines that “Delivery of the required infrastructure, associated systems, and staffing to implement the requirements of the protocol by December 2020 represents a major strategic, political and operational challenge.” It is also said that there would be a “legal and political (domestic and EU) impact of not being able to deliver the protocol in December 2020” and that “delivery on the ground would need to commence before we know the outcome of negotiations on the free trade deal with the EU”.

Therefore, one of the main priorities of the Tories’ leader is at peril. It is without a doubt a very difficult deal to be achieved but apparently both Boris Johnson and his government continue to claim that they will make the agreement happen by the end of 2020. Who should the UK voter believe in?

Critical vote

It would be very tough to decide on whom to rely your dreams regarding the fate of the United Kindgom, its relationship with the EU, the NHS system, the climate change policy and border security among others. It would also be very bizarre to believe all that is being promulgated by the leaders of both the Conservative and Labour parties.

As things have evolved, it is unlikely but not impossible to see Boris Johnson lose by Jeremy Corbyn. But will the UK general elections’ outcome provide a clear majority win even for the Tories’ leader? And if so, how and when does he intend to conclude the Brexit agreement with the EU? On the event of a hung parliament though, things are going to go very uncertain again as the plans of Boris Johnson would be stopped and the UK may even hold a second referendum.

All in all, the time has come for the United Kingdom to come forward and show what it really wants, because both them and the rest of the world are facing a terrible Brexit fatigue.

Is it going to be a snap Brexit from the EU which is propagated by BoJo or a second/third….infinite referendum that Jeremy Corbyn supports?