If Macron defies Britain about the banks, Paris and London to clash over ‘La Manche’

Emmanuel Macron addressing the European Parliament on the occasion of the International Day for the Eradication of Poverty. 19/10/2016. © European Union 2016 – Source : European Parliament, Brussels.

None of the two winners of yesterday’s first round in the French Presidential election, the pro EU banker Emmanuel Macron (23.9%) and the anti-EU and xenophobic Marine Le Pen (21.4%) is to make things easier for their country. However, the same is true for the British PM Theresa May. The latter’s decision to call an early election for 8 June in order to support a hard Brexit, negatively surprised the entire European Continent and the world. Only days before she had absolutely excluded such an eventuality.

The sure victory of the stout European Macron on the night of 7 May, though, can pose grave problems for Brexit, because he surely will protect the interests of the financial sector. May’s government is at odds and has practically no contact with the global banking community stationed in London. Let’s dig a bit deeper into the repercussions of the highly probable Macron – May confrontation, over the role of the financial sector in the real economy.

May’s decision to call an early election is an infallible sign of the grave problems her Brexiteer government faces, in complotting a wild divorce with the European Union, totally ignoring the interests of the London City. There is no doubt, also, that May’s Brexit is intended to hurt the EU as much as possible, paying no attention to the costs to her own country. This is a political typhlosis comparable only to the declaration of WWI in the summer of 1914. Or even a terrible way to control the inevitable and possibly violent disillusionment of the English low and middle classes who voted ‘leave’, believing the Brexiteers’ lies. The problem is how Macron plans to confront May’s intransigence.

Macron, the banking man

The man to be the next French President has repeatedly stated that France wouldn’t make things easy for Britain, if London vies for a hard Brexit. Given that whoever wins the next September German election, Berlin won’t drastically change its mark on the Continent, the developments in France and Britain will drastically reshape the future of Europe, as it will be intertwined by the London – Paris confrontation. No doubt the entire European continent will not be the same after this summer. Let’s go to the city of light.

Despite his promises, Macron won’t be a real comfort for his compatriots. His vague policy proposals leave room for everything. And his driving ideal for a “democratic revolution” to “unblock France” may lead anywhere. He will be the first resident of the Élysée Palace in the turbulent history of the Hexagon, to govern it without a political party. Or has he a hidden one? Not to forget, that his last real and lavishly rewarded job was with the renowned Rothschild & Cie Banque.

Jet propulsion

As everybody in the banking industry knows the huge Rothschild financial group is a key global player, with strong relations with the Western political establishment. It also pays a lot of attention to its employees’ potential in other walks of life. So, Macron won’t be alone in governing France. His jet propulsion to prominence and the full support he enjoys in the economic establishment and media world are good indicators of who will be his aides in governing La France. But this will be finally decided during the next fifteen days and on 7 May night. In the mean time, we can return to Britain.

The 51.9% majority in the 23 June 2026 referendum is far from being a landslide victory for the Brexiteers camp. So they now think they need something more in order to accomplish their outrageous plans for a wild separation with the EU. If they won’t be able to realize their dangerous plan and instead settle for an amicable Brexit, they would be accountable to their betrayed followers who voted ‘leave’, having believed the lies that Britain will triumph outside the EU. They might even be legally challenged for having consciously misled the British people.

Hard Brexit hurts all bankers

There is no doubt that London’s powerful and immensely wealthy financial community is to pay the dearest price from a hard Brexit. It’s then quite logical to assume that May’s early election decision was the only way out from the unbearable pressures exerted on her, from the City sharks who demand an amicable separation with the EU. Obviously, the London bankers want to retain their ‘passport’ to do business in mainland Europe. Such a prospect is now clearly impossible though, if the British government vies for a hostile divorce or a Brexit with no agreement at all.

Yet again, even if May’s conservatives win one hundred more deputies in the House of Commons, as some pollsters currently predict, the hard Brexit option won’t be easier to impose on Scotland and Northern Ireland. Both those Peoples have clearly stated their purpose to somehow not follow England and Wales in such a solitary and dangerous path. But let’s return to France.

Brussels mocks May

The result of the 7 May second round of the Presidential election will not make it any easier for May. Her own electoral rhetoric for a hard Brexit will surely be met with hostility in mainland Europe. Arguably, an unfriendly Franco- German block won’t help May increase her credibility in the British voters. Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, who expresses the mainstream views of the 27 EU leaders, mocked May’s early election call. He said that this surprise turn could only have been staged by the famous for his flabbergast scenarios, the late Alfred Hitchcock the ‘Master of Suspense’.

On top of that, it is rather certain that in fifteen days time Emmanuel Macron, well known for his connection with the banking industry, will be President of France, things will be more difficult for May. She has practically no relations or contacts whatsoever with the colossal banking and finance hub of the London City.

On the other side of the fence, Macron will do his best to help the European bankers, including of course his own country’s giants like BNP Paribas, Société Générale and Crédit Agricole. He may then press hard the British Brexiteers to pay good attention to the interests of the western banking giants stationed in London. Or, at least, Macron will try to make sure that May’s government will look after the affairs of the banks in the eventuality of a wild Brexit.

Franco-British banking war?

Undoubtedly, Macron and May are on opposite sides of the spectrum as far as the world of banking is concerned. The Frenchman is a ‘child’ of the financial space, while the British PM has a political mandate from people who are left behind, neglected or even harmed by the globalized economic universe of our times. It remains to be seen, if the banks will become the cause and the epicenter of a great clash between the English ‘populist’ and the French ‘mainstreamer’.