Brexit update: Leave campaign leads race but undecided voters will determine the outcome of the EU referendum

David CAMERON, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, at the European Council. Shoot location: Brussels – Belgium. Shoot date: 18/12/2015. Copyright: ‘The European Union’.

David CAMERON, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, at the European Council. Shoot location: Brussels – Belgium. Shoot date: 18/12/2015. Copyright: ‘The European Union’.

The time has come and the British citizens will have to take the faith of their country in their own hands. In just over a week they will decide whether they want to stay or leave the European Union with the rest of the world to wait the outcome with great anxiety.

There have been several opinion polls during the last days and almost all show that the Leave campaign is leading but the undecided voters are the ones to determine the outcome of the EU-UK referendum. Some of the main issues that play crucial role and could influence UK citizens’ minds are the and the growth of the national economy.

Europe wants UK to stay

Will UK be a member of the EU after June 23? Nobody can be sure but that is something that the European leaders and officials want and are doing whatever they can to persuade the British people to stay within the “European family”. Donald Tusk warned that a Brexit vote will cause rise of anti-European power and create negative effects to both economies.

More specifically, the president of the European Council said: “As a historian I fear Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also Western political civilisation in its entirety. Every family knows that a divorce is traumatic for everyone. Everyone in the EU, but especially the Brits themselves, would lose out economically.”

What is more, Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, mentioned that problems such as financial crisis, climate change, refugee crisis must be dealt at a European level “with more and better Europe” showing his clear support for the Remain campaign.

Polls reveal Brexit

There have been numerous opinion polls regarding the outcome of the EU-UK referendum with the main finding so far to be that the Brexit side has raised its percentage to a great extent reaching the Remain one.

The TNS online poll of 2.497 people which was published yesterday reveals that 47% of them want UK to leave the EU whereas 40% will vote to stay within the bloc. However, a considerable part of 13% still hasn’t decided or will not vote in the upcoming referendum.

Similar results were shown by the ORB online poll which gives to the Leave campaign a 10 point lead. Another online study (The Opinium) which was conducted in a sample of 2009 voters and published on June 12 for the Observer showed that both sides are close to 43-44% but the undecided voters consist of 13% of the total sample which makes things quite fragile.

Furthermore, the average of the six polls (both online and phone) conducted during the previous week show that both sides are close with the Remain one to maintain a small lead.

Possible UK exit causes financial markets’ volatility

The recent volatility of the world markets with the sterling to decline against almost all main counterparts experiencing a 1.1% decrease has raised serious concerns. The S&P 500 and MSCI World Index’s drop revealed also that the increase of Brexit’s probabilities have contaminated the financial world.

Nevertheless, UK is and will always be influencing the rest of the global markets with or without an EU-exit probability. There will always be uncertainties which will cause turbulences to the financial markets but eventually they will come back to normal in the long-run.

Besides, the European Central Bank (ECB) will pledge to support markets in the event of a Brexit scenario according to a senior central bank official who stated to Reuters that “there will be a statement to do whatever it takes to maintain adequate market liquidity.” The latter shows that the European mechanisms want to be ready in any case and several meetings have been scheduled especially on June 23 and 24 between Mario Draghi and his European peers.

Undecided voters will make the difference

The polls have shown that people are changing their minds according to the latest news and find it difficult to decide what is best for them. The percentage of people who has not yet decided if or what will vote is most likely to reveal the winner of the referendum. One thing is most likely to happen though. Undecided voters in general tend to support the side which preserves their status quo in fear of the unknown and in this case is the Remain side.

All in all, the coming days till the referendum will be crucial and both sides are about to make their last desperate efforts to persuade the remaining undecided Britons to vote in their favor by always looking for what the best for the UK.

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