Can the US-Iran rapprochement change the world?

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, traveled to the US and participated at a White House Summit on ‘Countering Violent Extremism’, in Washington D.C. From left to right Mogherini, Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary General, John Kerry, US Secretary of State and Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt. (European Council – Council of the European Union, Audiovisual Services, Shoot location: Washington D.C. Shoot date: 19/02/2015).

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, traveled to the US and participated at a White House Summit on ‘Countering Violent Extremism’, in Washington D.C. From left to right: Mogherini, Ban Ki-Moon, UN Secretary General, John Kerry, US Secretary of State and Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt. (European Council – Council of the European Union, Audiovisual Services, Shoot location: Washington D.C. Shoot date: 19/02/2015).

The United States global gendarmes and the Shiite Iran were brought together in a common fight against the Islamic States murderers in Iraq and Syria, thus opening the way for a wider understanding between the two until recently sworn enemies. The American government saw one more major geostrategic advantage in the rapprochement with Tehran. And this is nothing else than the accomplishment of the US administration’s target to further cut crude oil prices down to the bone. Of course there are collateral damages in this new American strategy but the White House has never paid much attention to that.

Understandably, for the US administration the crucial point is to convince the Iranian leaders to agree to a nuclear deal. If this hurdle is surpassed then everything else will be a piece of cake for the Americans. The Iranian oil will then again start flooding the dollar oil markets pushing prices further down. Cheaper oil would have some immediate and spectacular results. It will support economic growth in the advanced and the emerging economies and will further tantalize Putin’s Russia and Maduro’s Venezuela. What else could Washington dream of?

Good for the US good for the world

While those two are standard targets of the US diplomacy, the latest White House initiative to approach the Tehran rulers has more and powerful adversaries. One of them is Benjamin Netanyahu and his policy in the Palestinian issue. This Israeli political leader has based a successful and very long presence in his country’s political arena, on the postulation that a more or less peaceful coexistence with a Palestinian State is impossible. This theory has repeatedly convinced the country’s voters and has given him one more victory last Tuesday, rather unexpected this time. Nonetheless this Netanyahu policy has isolated Israel from the rest of the world. The US, the EU and almost everybody else is opposing this Tell-Aviv strategy, but this is not the first time that Israel is faring against all odds.

Despite the latest Netanyahu victory it seems that things are changing in the Israeli society and in one or two years time both Netanyahu and his theory may have to adapt to new realities. Not to forget that Israel is a well functioning democracy with a sound division of powers. So a West-Iran nuclear deal could accelerate this process in the internal Israeli scenery. In any case developments will not be linear. Netanyahu managed to air his strong opposition to this White House policy from the very tribune of the US Congerss.

Republicans on foreign policy

The 47 almost exclusively Republican US senators who oppose this Obama initiative for a deal with Tehran have even written a letter to the Iranian leadership, to undermine their government’s proposal for a nuclear agreement. They were also the main force behind the Netanyahu honorary address of the American Congress on 2 March, a development which boosted his prospects in the 17 March election. Undoubtedly the unexpected electoral victory of his Likud party would create serious obstacles in the West-Iran rapprochement.

There are more Middle East notables who oppose this rapprochement though. The wealthy Sunni kingdoms of the Arab Gulf which base their security almost exclusively on the US, consider the Shiite Iran as their major threat. Understandably they hate to see their mighty friend flirting with their mighty enemy. However Washington has the ability and the powers to convince the wealthy Arab governments that a West-Iran pact will be in their favor too. For one thing it will defuse the tensions in the Gulf and the Arab Peninsula. The unexpected win of Netanyahu’s Likud party last Tuesday may complicate things though. Tell-Aviv has a strong leverage not only in the wider Middle East region, but also within the US government and administration. In this respect the Iranian policy of the White House may have a rough time.

Cheap and abundant oil

Let’s turn now to the repercussions on the oil markets and beyond from a successful conclusion of the West-Iran agreement. As mentioned above a new bonanza of crude oil supplies would have Putin’s Russia and Maduro’s Venezuela as main victims. Both those two major crude producers are depending completely on expensive oil in order to feed their millions more or less adequately. The effect of a crude oil price fall below the 40 dollars a barrel, will be so important in both countries, that it won’t be an exaggeration to say that politically they won’t be the same after one year.

Of course in the case of Russia the impact of the very cheap crude oil would have much wider effects. It’s not by chance that Germany is so strongly supporting the US initiative to unlock the Iranian doors. The very cheap oil would make Moscow and Putin much more susceptible to EU’s pressures over Ukraine and more. Merkel’s and Hollande’s ability to strike the Minsk agreement last month with Putin over Ukraine’s future is not unrelated to that. Not to say anything that cheap oil may help the ailing Eurozone economy start growing again.

In short, if the Barack Obama administration manages to unlock the Iranian gates, in less than a year time the world will be obliged to adapt to some novel realities.

 

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the European Sting Milestones

Featured Stings

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

DR Congo: Strengthened effort against Ebola is paying off, but insecurity still major constraint – UN health agency

World Pride underscores that all people are born ‘free and equal’ in dignity and human rights

UN chief ‘deeply saddened’ by Ethiopia plane crash which killed 157, including at least 21 UN workers

Can the next financial crisis be avoided?

World Food Programme accesses Yemeni frontline district for first time since conflict began

Real EU unemployment rate at 10.2%+4.1%+4.7%: Eurostat Update

The Fourth Industrial Revolution must not leave farming behind

Youth for Climate Change

Wednesday’s Daily Brief: Libya ‘war crime’ attack, Sudan, Myanmar rights violations continue, ‘xenophobia’ in Assam, South Sudan update

Brexit: Is there anybody supporting a non-violent separation?

UN makes ‘declaration of digital interdependence’, with release of tech report

The three biggest challenges for India’s future

Education and Training: where do we stand in 2014?

New EU rules to thwart money laundering and terrorist financing

China in My Suburbs

JADE Handover Ceremony at the European Parliement

So different, so close – for two twinning cities

Budget MEPs approve €104.2 m in EU aid to Greece, Spain, France and Portugal

TTIP wins Merkel’s endorsement ahead of 2016 tough deadline

MWC 2016 LIVE: Mobile has power to tame transaction fees – PayPal CEO

NEC @ European Business Summit 2014: The Digitally Enabled Grid

Ebola situation worsening in DR Congo, amidst growing ‘funding gap’ UN health agency warns

Canada and EU officially sign the trade agreement that could open-up the road to TTIP

Back to the Basics: Primary Healthcare

The Indian case: health policies need to keep pace with public health literacy

Ebola: EU announces new funds to strengthen preparedness in Burundi

A money laundering case on Vatican Bank’s road to renovation

A Young student assesses the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)

After the European Parliament elections – what happens next?

Progress on gender equality is too slow, says OECD on International Women’s Day

European banking stress tests 2014: A more adverse approach for a shorter banking sector

Central Africa Republic: Violence drives thousands of refugees into neighbouring DR Congo, says UN agency

G20 to Germany: Abandon miser policies

Indonesia is buzzing with entrepreneurial spirit. And others in ASEAN aren’t far behind

Grexit no longer a threat but how to manage a “tutti frutti” government if not with fear?

Disaster Medicine in Medical Education: the investment you just can´t afford to ignore

Scientists just got closer to making nuclear fusion work

Young and unemployed the perfect victims of ‘vultures’

Chernobyl nuclear disaster-affected areas spring to life, 33 years on

European Union presents its progress towards sustainable development

Commission hardens its stance against carmakers ensuring emissions reductions targets

JADE at European Business Summit 2015

5 charts that explain big challenges facing Italy’s new government

‘Great Pacific Garbage Patch’ clean-up project launches trial run: UN Environment

Greece begins a new chapter following the conclusion of its stability support programme

Facebook/Cambridge Analytica: MEPs pursue personal data breaches probe

Mozambique: UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Orlando Bloom meets the child cyclone survivors who’ve lost everything

More accessible products and services for disabled and elderly people

The impossible end of the war in Syria

GDPR and the World Cup have these 4 things in common

Reforms in a few countries drive a decline in average OECD labour taxes

Libya on verge of civil war, threatening ‘permanent division’, top UN official warns Security Council

DR Congo: Ebola claims over 1,000 lives, Guterres commits ‘whole’ UN system, to help ‘end the outbreak’

G20 LIVE: “Re-envisioning the economy to enable women to reach their full potential” live from Antalya Turkey

Homicide kills far more people than armed conflict, new UN study shows

Challenges remain in DPRK despite ‘slight’ improvements in health, wellbeing: UNICEF

A Sting Exclusive: “Europe needs decisive progress for stronger cybersecurity”, EU Commissioner Gabriel highlights from Brussels

Six steps that can help us to tackle homelessness

A Sting Exclusive: “Climate change and youth inaction: oblivion or nonchalance?”, AIESEC wonders from Brussels

Praising Roma’s contributions in Europe, UN expert urges end to rising intolerance and hate speech

More Stings?

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s