Drawing scenarios for drifting Britain; elections or May’s deadlock?

British Prime Minister Theresa May leaves for India. She is leading a trade mission to that country on her first major bilateral visit, since taking office. According to 10 Downing Street, the PM will take examples of the best of British business to India on 6 to 8 November in her first bilateral visit outside Europe. (Prime Minister’s Office, 10 Downing Street, Audiovisual Service. UK Government work).

The cruel attacks by the ‘leave’ champions and Press against the three judges of Britain’s High Court, who unanimously ruled that the Brexit has to be passed in Parliament, turned out to be utterly un-British and leaned towards fascism. Tabloid newspapers and members of the May government alike called the judges’ ruling ‘unacceptable’, ‘frustrating the will of the people’ and branded them as ‘enemies of the people’. To be reminded, last Thursday the High Court ruled that the Parliament must vote on the question, whether the government can trigger Article 50, thus launching the formal procedures for the UK to leave the European Union.

Unfortunately, Prime Minister Teresa May avoided intervening, in order to protect the independence of the third pillar of the democratic system, the judiciary (the other two being the legislative and the executive). The attacks against the three judges by brexiteer champions and some newspapers were so terrible, that the Bar Council, the association of lawyers of England and Wales, urged Lord Chancellor Liz Truss, who is at the same time Secretary of Justice, to defend the judiciary.

The judiciary under attack

Only then the Lord Chancellor said that the “The independence of the judiciary is the foundation upon which our rule of law is built and our judiciary is rightly respected the world over for its independence and impartiality”. Then she added, “In relation to the case heard in the High Court, the government has made it clear it will appeal to the Supreme Court. Legal process must be followed.” Not a word about those who verbally insulted the judges.

It is quite surprising that the British government truly expected a different ruling on the Brexit process, than what the High Court said. In reality, this is not a difficult question to answer at all. Every first year student of Law knows that a law can only be changed by another law, an act which, in democracy, is the exclusive authority of the Parliament. Under this light, it is difficult to see what the Brexiteers including PM May can expect from the Supreme Court next month.

The authority of the Parliament

Seemingly, the Brexiteers forget that it was them who fought for the British Parliament to regain its sovereignty and its independence from the EU bodies (EU Parliament, EU Courts and EU Council) with the Brexit. Now, the government denies the MPs and the Lords their constitutional right to vote, if they want to change the 1972 European Communities Act. This was the law under which the UK became a member of the then European Communities. Only if new law is voted to serve the Brexit, will the government be authorized to trigger Article 50 of the EU Treaty.

Article 50 of the EU Treaty – also called the Lisbon Treaty – provides the only legal way for a country to leave the EU. According to a European Parliament Briefing, “The right of a Member State to withdraw from the European Union was introduced for the first time with the Lisbon Treaty; Article 50 does not set down any substantive conditions for a Member State to be able to exercise its right to withdraw, rather it includes only procedural requirements. It provides for the negotiation of a withdrawal agreement between the EU and the withdrawing state, in particular, defining the latter’s future relationship with the Union. If no agreement is concluded within two years, that state’s membership ends automatically, unless the European Council and the Member State concerned decide jointly to extend this period”.

UK Politics in disarray

Coming back to the British political and legal systems, right from the start it was absurd for the Brexiteer May government to think that it was possible to get the UK out of the EU, solely at their own decision. Next month, the Supreme Court will most probably uphold the High Court’s decision and will bring the Brexiteers before the difficult reality.

PM May and her government will be obliged to repeat their arguments before the Parliament, defending why the UK must leave the EU. All that will take place with a rather hostile audience. The 650 members of the House of Commons are, in their overwhelming majority, against the Brexit. According to the prestigious Guardian newspaper, Lord Heseltine said, “there is a majority of 350 MPs in the House of Commons favoring the European relationship”.

Majority of MPs for ‘remain’

Michael Heseltine, Baron Heseltine CH PC is a well respected British businessman and Conservative politician, patron of the Tory Reform Group. If the law for the UK to leave the EU is to be approved in Parliament, the majority of the MPs will have to vote not according their beliefs, best knowledge and mind-set, but in order to serve the will of the people. Of course, they can as well reject May’s law proposal for the country to leave the EU.

In either case, the British political system will enter dark uncharted waters. In the first case it will be evident, that the MPs, the leaders of the nation, will have voted against their own judgment, bowing to what 51.89% of voters believed on a certain day. On that same day 48.11% believed the opposite. And this decision is to irreparably affect the future of both. In the other case, that is, if the MPs follow their heart and mind and reject what May and her Brexiteer government wants, then the absolute deadlock will dawn for Britain.

Mr David Cameron will be there to witness the disastrous repercussions of his careless decision to promise the referendum in order to win an election in 2015. He egotistically and stupidly decided to risk his country’s future, thinking that after winning the referendum he would govern Britain for another ten years.

Elections?

An exit from the current deadlock may be an early legislative election in order to avoid putting this Parliament to the test. The electoral campaign will very probably be fought on the same question as the 23 June referendum, in or out the EU. The traditional party political ideology will very likely be replaced by the confrontation between the ‘leave’ and the ‘remain’ proposals. Both main parties, the Tories and the Labor will be de facto dissolved and two new political forces will appear, the ‘Brexiteers’ and the ‘Europeans’. It will be as if a second referendum is taking place. In this way, the political life of Britain will be deformed forever, no matter what the result of this election may be. In reality, the British people would have been forced to participate in a second ‘quasi’ referendum.

A reality could emerge during the electoral campaign that the Brexit was the ‘wrong’ answer, and people will be voting continuously, until they come up with the ‘right’ reply. This has happened in Ireland at the time of the approval of the Lisbon Treaty. Digging a bit deeper into this logic, one may end up with the finding that democracy will be the ‘right’ political system, as long as the people make the ‘right’ choices. As a result in Britain, with a culture where respect of procedures prevails, this can bring about a second ‘referendum’. Procedures or not then, an early election will be tantamount to a second referendum.

In conclusion, whatever the future holds for Britain, the country will be drastically transformed in the next few months during these currently intense political times.