Can the Americans alone determine the future of Syria?

General view of the EU-Russia Summit, 20-21/12/2012, on the left: Vladimir Putin, 2nd from the left. On the right, from right to left: Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the EC, Herman van Rompuy, José Manuel Barroso, Karel De Gucht, Member of the EC in charge of Trade, Günther Oettinger, Member of the EC in charge of Energy, Fernando Valenzuela, Head of the EU Delegation to Russia, and Hugo Sobral, Deputy Head of cabinet of José Manuel Barroso and Diplomatic Adviser. (EC Audiovisual Services).

General view of the EU-Russia Summit, 20-21/12/2012, on the left: Vladimir Putin, 2nd from the left. On the right, from right to left: Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the EC, Herman van Rompuy, José Manuel Barroso, Karel De Gucht, Member of the EC in charge of Trade, Günther Oettinger, Member of the EC in charge of Energy, Fernando Valenzuela, Head of the EU Delegation to Russia, and Hugo Sobral, Deputy Head of cabinet of José Manuel Barroso and Diplomatic Adviser. (EC Audiovisual Services).

The last speech of Bashar al Assad on the first Friday of New Year, which deeply disappointed the West and the Sunni Arabs in the oil rich countries of the Persian Gulf, was about an all-out war. He spoke of “a full scale war” against the enemies of his regime, mainly the Sunni Muslims. But let’s examine how the various camps are formed in this trouble stricken region, a standard in world politics as from the era of our Lord Jesus Christ.

At this point it must be noted that the rule of Assads, Bashar now and his father before him, has been built on the Alawite Moslem minority of their country, a more secular version of Islam. In neighbouring regions of Turkey and along the Aegean Sea coastal areas of this last country, Alawites are estimated at anything between 15 and 20 million people. Ankara, backed Assad at the beginning of this civil war nit has turned now against him, aligning with the West.

The Assad regime of Damascus has strong allies in the Lebanon Alawites, practically also at war with their fellow countrymen Sunni Muslims. Assad has also traditional friendly relations and strong backings from Moscow and Tehran. Russia has dispatched to Syria a long time ago large numbers of civilians estimated at 70,000 people, working in various infrastructure projects, plus an unknown number of military “experts”.

Obviously Israel in against the Assad regime in Syria and backs on the spot together with Turkey the opposition fighters, who now control a good part of the land. In Syria lives also a population of 2 million Kurds always at odds with Ankara, because they back the Turkey’s PKK Kurd rebels not very actively engaged in either part of the ongoing civil war in Syria.

In short what is happening in Syria at this moment is a small sample book of the entire Middle East conflicts, engaging Sunnis against Shia and Alawite Muslims, Kurds of Turkey, Syria and Iraq fighting for their own self-rule, Israel in direct conflict with Iran and the West and Russia in acute confrontation about the future of Syria.

The future of the North Iraq semi-independent Kurdish state is also at stake, with the Americans having there a close ally. If the Syrian civil war finds the Sunnis victorious, Russia will lose its strong hold in the region. This is rather impossible however because the Syrian Alawites led by Assad are a good 15% of the population and will never surrender their future to the Sunni majority. For them it will be war to the last man and Assad now appeared ready to take care of that.

In total the appalling next day after the disintegration of the Gaddafi regime in Libya is a guide of the future developments in Syria and all along the wider region from Teheran to Tell Aviv and from Ankara to the Persian Gulf in the South. A total destruction of whatever social tissues existed in this region.

A good prognosis though should take into account that populations of millions cannot be totally exterminated and will continue to control the ground on which they have been living for centuries. What happens now in Libya is a good example of what may happen in Syria. No faction will be in absolute control and there will be no centrally control state, in the sense we know in the west. Armed militias will continue to exist and rule on the ground, being in continuous skirmishes with each other and the big powers like the US and Russia controlling small enclaves which are vital for their interests.

It remains to be seen if the Americans will forced to recognise that there will be no end to the conflict without Russia accepting it. In short this means that the US and their European allies in Paris and London, would be obliged to come to terms with the prospect of a strong Russian presence in the Middle East.

The last offer by Moscow for a truce in Syria between the Assad regime and the opposition fighters was very clear of what the outcome may be. Russia apparently does not consider a solution without Assad playing a central role in it. And this may mean a continuation of fight.

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

Advertising

the sting Milestone

Featured Stings

Can we feed everyone without unleashing disaster? Read on

These campaigners want to give a quarter of the UK back to nature

How to build a more resilient and inclusive global system

Stopping antimicrobial resistance would cost just USD 2 per person a year

Cameron readies to support ‘yes’ for Britain in the EU

Why CEOs need to become activists in sustainability

Protecting European consumers: toys and cars on top of the list of dangerous products

These countries have some of the highest voter turnout in the world

The COP24 Agreement: Yes, it happened at last

Australia now has 25 million people. Will it choose to keep growing?

Climate change hits the poor hardest. Mozambique’s cyclones prove it

Getting people with disabilities into work requires data

US must abide by humanitarian refugee accords: UN refugee agency

SMEs and micro firms sinking together with south Eurozone

Talent is worldwide. Opportunity is not. How can we redistribute it?

Will Merkel ever steer the EU migration Titanic and restore her power in Germany?

The EU’s trading partners: US, China and the rest

UN recognises role of sport in achieving sustainable development

A male gynecologist in Iraq: red line violated

Code of Practice on Disinformation one year on: online platforms submit self-assessment reports

More state aid to big firms, no special provisions for the SMEs

Multilateralism more vital than ever, as World War centenary looms: Security Council

Anti-vaccination movement affecting youth in Europe

‘No hope’ global development goals can be achieved without women, says UN Assembly President

Who will secure Lithuania?

Syria: UN health agency highlights ‘critical health threats’ facing Idlib civilians

Luxembourg has achieved high levels of growth and well-being but must do more to preserve and share prosperity

New UN-supported farming app is cream of crop in tackling Sahel pest

UN rights chief ‘extremely concerned’ over deadly crackdown on protesters in Iran

A Sting Exclusive: “There can be no global deal on emissions without China and the USA”, Conservative MEP Ian Duncan stresses from Brussels

England’s beavers are back, and they’ve already made a big impact

UN chief welcomes resolution to 27-year-old disagreement over renaming the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Energy Union: EU invests a further €800 million in priority energy infrastructure

Happens now in Brussels: Green Week sets the EU and global climate policy agenda

TTIP’s 11th round major takeaways and the usual “leaked” document

Yemen: 11 more ‘terrible, senseless’ civilian deaths reported, following attack in Sana’a – top UN official

10 cities are predicted to gain megacity status by 2030

There are 3 barriers blocking good menstrual hygiene for all women. Here’s how we overcome them

OECD survey reveals many people unhappy with public services and benefits

G20 LIVE: “Re-envisioning the economy to enable women to reach their full potential” live from Antalya Turkey

EU and World Health Organisation team up to boost access to health services in developing countries

The global economy is woefully unprepared for biological threats. This is what we need to do

DR Congo elections: ‘Excessive use of force’ in campaign must be avoided, says Bachelet

Zimbabwe facing man-made starvation, says UN expert

European Business Summit 2013: Where Business and Politics shape the future

New Erasmus: more opportunities for disadvantaged youth

The Commission calls for a climate neutral Europe by 2050*

First-ever UN report on disability and development, illustrates inclusion gaps

The collision of these 3 geographies is creating a new world order

Stop the waste: UN food agencies call for action to reduce global hunger

Romania: MEPs are deeply concerned about judicial independence and rule of law

UK economy in dire straits: leading banks now officially plan to Brexit too

Are we at the edge of anti-vaccination health crisis?

EU budget 2019 approved: focus on the young, innovation and migration

MEPs commend Ukraine‘s reform efforts and denounce Russian aggression

Wednesday’s Daily Brief: updates from the Near East and Libya, Ebola in DR Congo, World War remembrance

AIESEC @ European Business Summit 2014: European Youth, Change Now Patiently

A 3-step plan for carbon-neutral cars

China-EU Trade and Economic Relations in Numbers

Keeping cool in the face of climate change

May led Britain to chaos, now looks for way out with unpredictable DUP

Nearly 5 million children in need due to rising violence in central Sahel: UNICEF

Change is happening – and young people are leading the way forward

LGBTQI+ and health care: do they deserve more attention from medical universities?

More Stings?

Trackbacks

Speak your Mind Here

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s